Expectations are improving: consulting firms projected inflation of 2.1% in May and a 2025 annual growth of less than 30%.

The Central Bank published its Market Expectations Survey (REM) and revealed that analysts estimate inflation in May closed at 2.1% and that the 2% barrier will be breached in June. The periodic study conducted by the monetary authority compiles projections from the country's leading economic consulting firms.

The May study was published on Thursday and compiles estimates from the 28th to the 30th of that month. The more than 40 consulting firms that participated indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) variation stood at 2.1%, far from the estimates made in April, which predicted that inflation during that period would reach 2.8%.

We are publishing the Market Expectations Survey for May 2025, with the main macroeconomic forecasts for the evolution of selected variables. More information: https://t.co/mtuRsH1mMl #REMBCRA pic.twitter.com/2CK3HKztiM

— BCRA (@BancoCentral_AR) June 5, 2025

The improved estimates are due to the fact that during the first few days of the month, prices registered smaller-than-expected increases, due to the drop in fruit and vegetable prices due to weather conditions, Hot Sale discounts, and regulated increases established by the government. In this regard, analysts project inflation of 1.9% for June and a cumulative 28.6% for the entire year of 2026, reaching rates of 1.5% in the final months of the year. This figure would also mark a significant advance compared to the previous REM , which predicted that annual inflation in 2025 would reach 31.3%.

The REM also considered other economic variables, including changes in the dollar , which has been in place for over a month under the new floating exchange rate regime. Regarding the foreign currency, the consulting firms predicted it would reach $1.167 by the end of June, then climb to $1.182 in July, and end the year at $1.300.

Other data considered was the evolution of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which they estimate rose 1.5% during the first quarter of the year and will reach 5.2% growth throughout 2025. In this regard, analysts calculated that the value of exports would total US$82.761 billion by the end of 2025, while imports would accumulate US$75 billion . Finally, they predicted that unemployment would reach 7.5% of the economically active population in the last quarter of the year.