How much will the dollar reach in 2025? Private consulting firms predict moderate devaluation and low inflation.
A report prepared by the international consulting firm FocusEconomics with more than 50 national and international banks and private consulting firms projected that the official dollar will close 2025 at $1,337.7 and rise to $1,568.4 by the end of 2026. The trend reflects a moderate devaluation in line with the new managed floating scheme implemented by the Central Bank since April.
The survey, published in the June LatinFocus report, also adjusted forecasts for economic growth, inflation, interest rates, and fiscal developments. Overall, analysts anticipate a sustained recovery in activity , a drop in inflation, improved public finances, and debt reduction.
POVERTY AND INDIGENCE ARE NOW LOWER THAN UNDER ALBERTO FERNANDEZ? Peronism left the worst macroeconomic legacy in history. And just 18 months later, Milei has already left poverty and indigence lower than they were under the previous government, before its end.
The new exchange rate policy defined by thegovernment establishes a floating range between $1,000 and $1,400 per dollar. According to analysts, this scheme has helped contain devaluation pressures without resorting to extreme controls. If fiscal discipline and IMF support are maintained, the exchange rate will continue to develop in an orderly fashion.
The projection for 2025 places the exchange rate at $1,337.7 , and for 2026 at $1,568.4 , which implies a progressive devaluation, without sudden jumps.
In terms of inflation, estimates point to a downward trend. For 2025, LatinFocus projects an average increase of 42.6% , with a downward correction of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous report. For 2026, inflation is expected to reach 23.6% .
The slowdown is explained by factors such as exchange rate stability, the end of price controls, lower monetary issuance, lower interest rates, and the stimulation of domestic competition.
In May, the official year-on-year inflation rate reached 43.5% , the lowest level since March 2021, while monthly inflation stood at 1.5% , down from 2.78% in April.
In parallel, the Central Bank reduced the monetary policy rate from 32% to 29% , accumulating a reduction of more than 100 points since the end of 2023. Analysts expect it to close 2025 at 26.58% , and 2026 at 19.19% .
Regarding economic activity, the report raised the GDP growth projection to 5% for 2025, with a 3.4% expansion in 2026. The most dynamic sectors are construction, retail trade, financial services, and manufacturing.
The EMAE indicator showed a 5.6% year-over-year increase in March , marking five months of growth. Although it fell 1.8% monthly , the underlying trend remains positive: the average annual change rose from 0% to 1.1% .
At the industrial level, production grew by 8.5% year-on-year in April and by 2.2% seasonally adjusted monthly , with the annual average improving from -4.8% to -2.7%.
Another of the data highlighted by LatinFocus was the reduction in the fiscal deficit , which will go from an average of -3.9% of GDP (2021–2023) to a surplus of 0.2% (2024–2026) . Fiscal stability with a minimum imbalance of -0.2% is expected between 2027 and 2029.
In line with this consolidation, public debt will fall from 106.6% to 77.2% of GDP , and will reach 65.2% in 2029 , reflecting a structural improvement in the government's accounts.
The external current account , for its part, would remain practically balanced, with an average of -0.1% of GDP in both the medium and long term.
The report also praised the government's decision to gradually eliminate tariffs on electronic products , which will lower the cost of imports and boost competition and domestic consumption. Analysts believe this type of structural reform is key to maintaining the stabilization path.
Finally, average economic growth for the three-year period 2024–2026 was projected at 2.2% , and 2.9% between 2027 and 2029. The improvement is attributed to macroeconomic normalization, fiscal order, and regulatory predictability promoted by the ruling party.
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