Lower inflation in April: Consulting firms predict a drop due to a stable dollar and paused corporate hikes.
Following the lifting of the currency controls and the initial adjustments to the official exchange rate, several private consulting firms decided to cut their initial inflation projections for April, which ranged from 4% to 5%, and now estimate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could fall below the 3.7% recorded in March . The explanation: the drop in the dollar in the weeks following the exchange rate unification and the suspension of the price increase lists that consumer goods companies had begun distributing to supermarkets.
In this context, C&T Asesores Económicos has the lowest monthly inflation forecast, at 2.7%. "We believe it won't reach 3%, based on our assessment. We don't see significant increases in any item that would change the trend," explained María Castiglioni , co-director of the consulting firm.
The Freedom and Progress Foundation also forecasts a figure close to 3%. “Our measurement doesn't show a significant impact since the exchange rate unification. The jump was small, and the pass-through to prices was limited. We could even see a downward correction due to the drop in vegetable prices,” noted Eugenio Marí , the firm's chief economist.
The consulting firms that estimate inflation just above 3% are PxQ and Equilibra. Both forecast a 3.3% figure for April. "Last week was very low, just 0.1%. We are recalculating downwards," said Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina of Equilibra.
LCG and EcoGo were in the same line, with estimates of 3.5%. According to EcoGo, food prices showed smaller-than-expected increases. Meanwhile, LCG indicated that 76% of the products surveyed in its sample showed no change.
The highest projections within the spectrum are those of Analytica (3.8%) and Abeceb (3.9%). Despite this, both consulting firms also revised their estimates downward. "We previously had a 4.3% projection, but now we've lowered it because there were no significant changes in food prices. Furthermore, the adjustment in prepaid health insurance was more moderate," explained Ricardo Delgado of Analytica.
Dante Sica , director of Abeceb, emphasized that the increase observed in March was due to one-off movements due to uncertainty prior to the new exchange rate regime. "It was a one-time adjustment. It shouldn't be interpreted as a sustained inflationary acceleration. What follows is a downward trend in line with the macroeconomic order," he stated.
The consulting firms' projections reflect improved expectations following the implementation of the new exchange rate policy, the control of monetary issuance, and the fiscal surplus achieved by Javier Milei 's administration. The combination of these variables is beginning to consolidate a scenario of progressive disinflation, with less volatility in key prices and restraint of price increases by companies that previously adjusted preemptively.
In this context, consumption remains depressed, and this also impacts companies' ability to validate further increases. Scentia data showed a 5.4% year-over-year drop in March and an 8.6% decline in the first quarter. Price pressure, in this regard, remains limited.
While the Central Bank maintains the dollar's stability within the floating band and the Treasury successfully rolls over local currency debt, market signals and private projections converge on the same message: inflation is easing, and the economic program is making progress toward its stabilization objective.
elintransigente
