May inflation is estimated at 2.1%, a downward trend.

Analysts surveyed by the Central Bank of Argentina ( BCRA ) estimated that inflation stood at 2.1% in May . They also projected that inflation will cross the 2% barrier starting in June .

The analysis was carried out by 31 local and international consulting firms and research centers and 11 Argentine financial institutions. It was part of the Market Expectations Survey (REM).

Furthermore, the median projection showed that inflation would fall below 2% starting in June , reaching 1.9% in that month, 1.8% in July, and 1.7% in August, September, and October, before falling to 1.6% in November and closing December with a year-on-year change of 28.6%.

Regarding the Core CPI, the REM participants set their forecast for May at 2.2% (-0.4 pp compared to the previous REM). In the May survey, the REM analysts estimated that seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP between January and March would have grown 1.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 (-0.2 pp compared to the previous REM).

Within this framework, analysts project a slowdown to a growth rate of 0.2% in the second quarter of the year , followed by a quarterly expansion of 0.7% between July and September. For all of 2025, they expect an average real GDP level 5.2% higher than the 2024 average (a 0.1 percentage point increase compared to the previous REM).

On the other hand, the open unemployment rate for the first quarter of 2025 was estimated by REM participants at 7.0% of the Economically Active Population, equivalent to the previous REM projection.

The median nominal exchange rate projection was $1,167 per dollar for the June 2025 average . By December 2025, all participants forecast a nominal exchange rate of $1,300 per dollar, yielding an expected year-over-year change of 27.4%.