Mexican real estate markets 2025: Stable growth, nearshoring boom, and digital transformation

The real estate sector in Mexico projects stable growth of nearly 4% by 2025, maintaining its position as a safe and profitable investment option, albeit with differentiated dynamics across segments and regions. Factors such as nearshoring, housing demand, technology, and a growing focus on sustainability are reshaping the market.

The nearshoring phenomenon (the relocation of supply chains close to the end market, primarily the US) remains a key driver, especially for the industrial market.

* High Demand: Regions such as the North (Monterrey, Tijuana), Bajío, and the Center of the country are experiencing strong demand for industrial warehouses and logistics parks.

* Investment: Trusts such as Fibra Mty plan significant investments (e.g., $500 million in 2025) to acquire and develop industrial spaces.

* Key Markets:

* Mexico City and Toluca: Strong Class A vessel market, low availability and increasing construction.

* Tijuana: Maintains stable prices with increases in specific submarkets.

* Guadalajara: Strong net absorption in 2024, with a focus on logistics and manufacturing; new developments are expected.

The housing market shows interesting trends:

* Existing Housing on the Rise: While new housing showed a slight contraction (-1%), existing housing grew a remarkable 16%, driven by confidence and affordable financing. This segment is becoming increasingly relevant.

* Downsizing: To maintain competitive prices, the average home size has decreased over the past 10 years. Developers are focusing on space efficiency and community amenities.

* Young Family Preferences: They prioritize location (proximity to services, work, transportation) over size. They seek the concept of "walking distance."

* Institutional Rental (Multifamily): This model, where a single owner manages entire buildings for rent, is gaining ground in high-value areas as an organized alternative to the traditional market.

* Unmet Demand: There is a challenge and opportunity in meeting the potential demand for housing, estimated at 8.8 million units, plus the new formation of households.

* Offices: The market is showing recovery, albeit with changes. There is a migration toward Class A properties and downtown areas.

* Mexico City: Rebound led by the technology and contact center sectors, especially in Insurgentes and Polanco. Neighborhoods in Miguel Hidalgo are emerging as new high-value areas.

* Monterrey: It consolidated its recovery in 2024, stable demand is expected.

* Guadalajara: Positive performance in 2024, with potential for rebound.

* Retail: Showing signs of recovery after the pandemic, with increased occupancy in shopping centers and the arrival of new brands. A balance between physical and online commerce is consolidating.

* Sustainability: Interest in green buildings, energy efficiency, and certifications (LEED, EDGE) is growing. Green mortgages with preferential rates are gaining popularity, although certification adoption is still low (5% of active developments).

* Technology (Proptech): Digital platforms, big data, AI, and blockchain are transforming the buying, selling, management, and financing of properties (crowdfunding). Technology is expected to streamline processes and increase transparency.

Despite challenges such as inflation and potential trade tensions, the Mexican real estate market in 2025 offers significant opportunities for developers, investors, and buyers who can adapt to these new dynamics and trends.

Thinking about buying, selling, or investing in real estate? Learn about trends in your local market.

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