The last cartridge

Pedro Sánchez has one last chance: to approve the 2026 state budget. To do so, however, he must convince his partners to support him and prevent Spain from falling into the hands of the far right. It would mean the end of the progressive coalition government, and the blame would fall solely on those who don't follow his crusade.

It would be tantamount to whitewashing the PSOE, even though it remains under the shadow of corruption. In essence, it would be a substitute for a vote of confidence, but less compromising for the radical left and the Basque and Catalan nationalists. A breath of fresh air that would allow him to finish his term and run again as a Socialist candidate.

Approving the 2026 budget would be a breath of fresh air for Sánchez.

If he fails to do so, he would have the perfect excuse to dissolve Parliament and call elections at the end of the year or in the first quarter of 2026, so as not to interfere with the regional electoral process. He already did so in March 2019 when the ERC (Republican Left) voted against the decision and dissolved the chambers, arguing that without a budget, he lacks political legitimacy.

It's true that a government can govern without a budget, as it did in the first two years of the legislature. But it would put it in a position of extreme weakness. Its partners would increasingly squeeze it, with all the discredit this would bring to the PSOE. In other words, it would place the Socialist Party on the brink of extinction, as has happened to European social democratic parties, including France, for example.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister is trying to buy time. He will continue governing as if nothing had happened in Spain in recent months. Regional financing. In two weeks, the decree to activate the budgets will be approved. The procedures for the fifth payment of European funds, more than 20 billion euros, will be accelerated. The Constitutional Court ruling on the amnesty that will allow Carles Puigdemont to return will be approved. The one-off financing for Catalonia will be launched. The trials on Operation Catalunya will be held, and even the takeover bid for Sabadell will be decided.

The goal is to seize the political initiative by managing the legislative and media agenda for the next six months. The objective is to demonstrate that Spain is doing well, that the government is governing, and that Pedro Sánchez is not the obstacle preventing institutions from functioning, as the opposition accuses him of. At the same time, he will reinforce his leitmotif: there is good corruption, like that of the Socialists who eliminate the bad apples, and bad corruption, like that of the People's Party (PP), which tries to hide them.

As Sánchez himself said, his project is above both himself and the PSOE, as it has the mission of regenerating democracy and eliminating corruption. Only he can prevent the far right from returning to power. A narrative reminiscent of Franco's saying that only God and History could judge him because he had one mission: to prevent communists from ruling Spain and Europe.