The oil model the government celebrates: how the collective bargaining agreement is moving forward with a ceiling and the tricks to circumvent it
The executive branch's pressure on unions and employers to respect salary increases of less than 1% per month found a prime example of collective bargaining: the agreement reached by the Private Oil and Gas Union of Río Negro, Neuquén, and La Pampa, led by Marcelo Rucci.
This union closed a collective bargaining agreement with raises of 1.8% for January, 1.5% for February, and 1% for March of next year. Additionally, it agreed to a 12% annual increase distributed in quarterly installments of 3%, which on average represents an increase of less than 1% per month. For the government , this formula represents a model to follow, and it was officially announced through the Ministry of Human Capital .
Meanwhile, other unions tried mechanisms that allowed them to circumvent official limits. The UOCRA , led by Gerardo Martínez , agreed to a 3.2% bimonthly raise plus fixed amounts and managed to get the Ministry of Labor to approve it without any conflict.
This wasn't the case for Armando Cavalieri, from Commerce , who signed a 5.4% quarterly increase only to be met with a government rejection. "If 1.7% puts the country's stability at risk, we're in trouble," said the union leader. Even so, his collective bargaining agreement contains a clause that allows increases to be applied even if they aren't approved.
The Metalworkers' Union, led by Abel Furlán , signed a 7.6% increase in five installments, plus five fixed sums. Unlike the Commerce Union, the agreement does not include an automatic execution clause, but could be added if the Government rejects it. CAMIMA , the SME chamber, has already distanced itself from the agreement: they warn, the agreement "endangers jobs."
In practice, the approval of collective bargaining agreements is subject to the supervision of Minister Luis Caputo . Although the Ministry of Labor remains formally autonomous, rumors about its possible transfer to the Ministry of Economy have caused concern in both Buenos Aires and Geneva, where the ILO conference is being held.
There, Gerardo Martínez once again questioned the "wage cap" and demanded freedom of collective bargaining. However, in practice, many unionists opt for creative solutions to avoid confrontation with the ruling party, such as non-remunerative sums or mirror clauses.
The government's strategy is clear: prevent wages from recovering purchasing power due to past inflation and anchor future expectations. At the same time, unions are divided between those who comply, those who resist, and those who feign moderate agreements with clauses that legally protect them.
As official sources point out, there is no impediment to the parties signing agreements with direct enforcement clauses. The problem is political: the government is unwilling to approve increases that distort the stabilization plan.
The discussion isn't just about numbers. What's at stake is who sets the rules for wage negotiations: whether it's the market with political backing, as Milei's liberal model proposes, or whether the corporate logic of union pressure and automatic equalization persists.
In this context, the Vaca Muerta oil workers' agreement appears to be the crown jewel. Not only because of its economic impact, but because it demonstrates that it is possible to seal agreements aligned with the official program without union ruptures or open conflicts.
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