Liver cancer will double by 2050 if obesity and alcohol are not curbed.

Liver cancer, currently the sixth most common and third most deadly cancer in the world, could nearly double its incidence in the next 25 years if prevention measures are not stepped up. An analysis by The Lancet Commission warns that new annual cases could grow from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million in 2050, with deaths rising from 760,000 to 1.37 million .

The report identifies alcohol consumption, hepatitis B and C infections, and the accumulation of fat in the liver associated with obesity (a disease known as MASLD) as the main risk factors. In fact, the proportion of cases linked to alcohol will increase from 19% to 21% by 2050, while those associated with obesity will rise from 8% to 11%.

Although the outlook is worrying, researchers emphasize that three out of five cases are preventable .

Among the most effective measures are increasing hepatitis B vaccination coverage—especially in regions with low immunization rates, such as sub-Saharan Africa—implementing alcohol control policies, and strengthening strategies against obesity and diabetes, both of which are linked to the development of MASLD.

Furthermore, the Commission recommends improving early detection in patients with risk factors such as obesity, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease , as well as investing in awareness campaigns about the dangers of excessive alcohol consumption and being overweight.

"Liver cancer is difficult to treat, and its five-year survival rate remains low, but a large proportion of cases can be prevented by addressing modifiable factors," says Jian Zhou, president of the Commission. Researcher Stephen Chan, meanwhile, highlights the opportunity to save millions of lives: "If we can reduce the annual incidence by 2% to 5% by 2050, we could prevent between nine and 17 million new cases and save up to 15 million lives."

China currently accounts for more than 40% of global cases, mainly due to the prevalence of hepatitis B, although the most rapid growth is projected in Africa, driven by population growth and aging.

The experts' message is clear: with vaccination, public health policies, and lifestyle changes , this trend can be halted and the survival and quality of life of millions of patients improved.