Michał Szułdrzyński: Hołownia is just a pretext. Only Tusk can save the coalition on October 15.

The divorce of the coalition on October 15 has not yet taken place. In fact, it has not yet begun, but the verdict on guilt is already in full swing. The most bitter supporters of the Civic Coalition have already found the culprit, Sejm Speaker Szymon Hołownia.

Why Donald Tusk's supporters are so eager to hate Szymon Hołownia and why this could lead to the collapse of the coalition on October 15

If someone thinks Hołownia is to blame for everything because he met with Adam Bielan from PiS on Thursday night, they must have slept through the last five weeks. Online fans of the Civic Coalition were already hating on Hołownia when – in accordance with the constitution – he convened the National Assembly to accept the oath from Karol Nawrocki. Why was Hołownia hated so much?

To explain this, we must stop for a moment and put forward another working hypothesis: Szymon Hołownia is not responsible for the current crisis in the coalition. Hołownia is a surrogate subject. The only culprit in the current crisis is Donald Tusk, who was unable to stop the madness that was emerging in his party, the spiral of emotions connected with accusations of fraud in the presidential elections.

In psychological terms, it is completely understandable that after an unexpected defeat, one looks for someone to blame. It is easier to make a case for election fraud than to admit to the historic feat of compromising the campaign of a candidate who led in 99 percent of public opinion polls throughout the campaign.

Who benefited the most from spreading theories about election fraud and disputes in the coalition?

That is why the prime minister was happy with increasingly radical theories about the Brothers Comrades, who were supposed to take over the electoral commissions and be responsible for allegedly mass election fraud. Sure, the way the Supreme Court treated the election protests, or at least some of them, was scandalous . But despite the passage of 5 weeks since the elections, no evidence of any mass conspiracy has yet emerged.

Yes, in many places the commissions made scandalous mistakes, changed the election results of candidates, increased the results of one, or added the votes of the second to the packages of the first. Of the cases examined, Karol Nawrocki was the more frequent beneficiary, but there were also examples in which Rafał Trzaskowski gained.

What really happened in the sociological and political sense? The most embittered voters were given hope, which was then consistently fueled, that Trzaskowski's defeat could still be reversed. But it was clear that within the Platform itself, the belief that something could be done was becoming weaker with each passing day. Ultimately, Donald Tusk's government published - with a reservation regarding the status of the new judges - the ruling of the Supreme Court's Extraordinary Control Chamber on the validity of Karol Nawrocki's election as President of the Republic of Poland.

Voters who had been lured into believing that the theory of fraud was serious suddenly felt betrayed. Some even began to criticize Donald Tusk for "giving up." Most focused their anger on Hołownia, who convened the National Assembly after the Supreme Court's decision. Hating the Speaker of the Sejm for meeting with Bielan is therefore a continuation of this therapy for electoral trauma. And at the same time, punishing Hołownia for his greatest sin in the eyes of Tusk's supporters - that he is subjective, that he sometimes criticizes Tusk and does not pay him idolatrous worship.

Except that this time they may bring about what everyone allegedly wants to avoid: the collapse of this coalition.

What would Donald Tusk have to do to save the coalition on October 15?

And only one person can save the coalition on October 15th. That person is Donald Tusk. But to save the coalition, he would have to act completely against his nature.

He would have to take Trzaskowski's defeat upon himself today. He would have to cut through conspiracy theories about election fraud. He would have to appeal to his own supporters (this also applies to MPs, but also state media, but also online fans and sometimes followers) to stop destroying the coalition from the inside by hating Hołownia.

The latter is the most difficult. Because politically, Donald Tusk was the beneficiary of the constant friction in the coalition. Every war between the left and the PSL, every quarrel within the Third Way, meant that, along with the weakening of the coalition partners, Tusk's own position grew. Also, the online hate against Poland 2050 and Hołownia himself did not particularly worry Tusk. But today the prime minister must answer the question: does he want to be to blame for the collapse of this coalition? Will any other be better for Poland now? Will an accelerated return of Jarosław Kaczyński to power be in the interest of the Polish raison d'état? Has the project of the October 15 coalition already exhausted itself and does it have nothing important to offer Poles?

In my opinion, the answer to all these questions is negative. And the October 15 coalition has a future if it stops taking care of itself and proves to 11.5 million Poles that they did not make a mistake in 2023 by voting for it. But there is less and less time for that. Poland really has more important challenges today than the national outrage of the coalition's voters over Hołownia's naivety, who got caught meeting with one of the biggest pests in the history of Polish politics, Adam Bielan. Because today, Jarosław Kaczyński is the one who enjoys the coalition's problems the most. And internal discord only suits him.