Putin vs. Aliyev and Erdogan: The fate of the South Caucasus hangs in the balance

- You have become accustomed to ruling over nations that Russia forcibly annexed to itself. Both in tsarist and Soviet times, the Russian people were considered a superior race. Azerbaijanis, Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, Turkmens and other nations have always been considered second-rate people - recently spoke a journalist of the government AZ TV, Rovshan Mammadov, who also heads the state radio and television broadcaster. He stated that imperial thinking in Russia "still persists" and recalled how Stalin "beheaded" Azerbaijani intelligentsia during the communist era.

– Does Putin realize that it is not 1937 now, but 2025, and that the post-Soviet republics have been independent for over 30 years? – he said. The head of the government station, which is subject to strict censorship by the authorities in Baku, also accused Putin of sending OMON to “strangle opponents”. What is more, it was stated that Russia has been responsible for all the conflicts in the region in recent decades, including in Nagorno-Karabakh . This shows how strongly the country is turning towards Russia under the rule of Ilham Aliyev.

Azerbaijan has canceled all exhibitions, concerts, film screenings and other cultural events that have any connection with Russia. A delegation from the Azerbaijani Mejlis (parliament) canceled at the last minute a visit to Moscow, where a joint session of the bilateral interparliamentary cooperation commission was to be held. The authorities in Baku also canceled a planned visit to Azerbaijan by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk.

On Monday, the services entered the Baku office of the Russian news agency Sputnik, and two people were detained, including the acting head of the local branch of the Russian propaganda outlet and the editor-in-chief. According to local media, they were accused of acting as agents for the Russian FSB.

All because of the brutal raid by Putin's services on the homes of representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg. During these operations last Friday, two people lost their lives, nine were arrested, and several were seriously injured. The Russian authorities justify the actions of the services with the case of a murder from several decades ago. The authorities in Baku are not convinced. They say that "ethnic violence" is increasingly common in Russia. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stood up for the beaten and murdered compatriots and is demanding that Russia punish the Ministry of Internal Affairs officers. And the local prosecutor's office has opened a criminal case.

In turn, Sergei Lavrov's ministry summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to Moscow because of "hostile actions and the detention of journalists". Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov "expressed regret", and United Russia Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin (head of the Commonwealth of Independent States committee) reminded the Baku authorities that they have not yet joined the pro-Russian Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). "Throughout their independent history, they have never been our strategic partner," he said.

Zatulin, like several other Duma deputies (including former boxer Nikolai Valuev), is banned from entering Azerbaijan because of his chauvinistic statements. Relations between the countries deteriorated significantly after Russia shot down an Azerbaijani passenger plane en route to Grozny in December last year, killing 38 people. Shortly after, Azerbaijani authorities closed the Russian House in Baku and expelled the Kremlin news agencies (Sputnik continued to operate despite the ban).

– They have not apologized to Azerbaijan to this day. Interestingly, at the same time our plane was shot down, President Aliyev was flying to St. Petersburg. He turned back, but for some reason he was already returning by a different route – through Kazakhstan. He was clearly afraid for his safety – Aslan Ismailov, a well-known Azerbaijani lawyer and human rights activist, tells “Rzeczpospolita”. In communist times, he was a judge in the Russian Stavropol, later a prosecutor in independent Azerbaijan and worked in the administration of Heydar Aliyev (the father of the current leader).

- Putin is striving to revive the USSR and does not like the fact that our authorities are conducting an independent foreign policy, selling energy resources to the European Union, for example. But this is not the only reason for the deterioration of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. Moscow is trying to sabotage the signing of the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace agreement. It is concerned that this process is taking place without their participation - says Ismailov.

– Even in the Soviet Union, the KGB provoked inter-ethnic conflicts and artificially created problems. Nagorno-Karabakh was not a problem for the Azerbaijani and Armenian nations, it was provoked by the center in Moscow. Russia unleashed a war in Ukraine, and before that, it provoked a conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In Moldova, Russians are present in Transnistria. All conflicts between the Central Asian republics also took place with Russian participation – he adds. As he claims, relations between Baku and Moscow may become even more acute in the near future and suggests that Russian forces have also become active in neighboring Armenia.

The authorities in Yerevan announced a few days ago a planned coup d'état, in which oligarchs associated with Russia and representatives of the Armenian Apostolic Church were allegedly involved. The Russian-Armenian entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan, whose fortune is estimated at over $3 billion, and several high-ranking clergymen were arrested.

After losing the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan suspended Armenia's participation in the CSTO, expelled Russian border guards from the airport in Yerevan and from the borders with Iran and Turkey. He also began peace talks with Baku and recently visited Istanbul. Armenian commentators do not hide the fact that after a possible signing of a peace agreement and opening of borders with both Azerbaijan and Turkey, which supports the authorities in Baku, the future of the Russian military base in Gyumri will be in question.

– Turkey’s expansion of influence in the South Caucasus is irritating Russia. Moscow was effectively pushed out during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and the current negotiations on the peace agreement are also taking place without the Kremlin’s participation – Wojciech Wojtasiewicz, an analyst for the South Caucasus at PISM, tells “Rzeczpospolita”. – Russia has always sought to manage various conflicts, and in this situation it is also trying to sabotage the peace process. The events in Yekaterinburg are just a sliver of what is happening under the carpet. And that’s where things are really boiling – he believes.

Leading Armenian political scientist Stepan Grigorian believes that both the tension in Azerbaijani-Russian relations and the recent events in Armenia “are elements of one big geopolitical game.” – Each of these countries has different reasons for the state of their relations with Moscow, but the goal is common – Armenia and Azerbaijan want to free themselves from Russia’s influence – Grigorian tells “Rzeczpospolita”.

– Azerbaijan played with Putin for a long time, and finally decided to say goodbye to Russia because it wants to pursue an independent policy. There is no longer a problem in Nagorno-Karabakh, so it does not need Moscow for anything. The Kremlin felt cheated. The events in our countries show that we need to hurry up with signing a peace agreement – ​​the expert adds.

He does not rule out that Russia may decide to mass deport Azerbaijani migrants to the country. Official data (from 2021) show that the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia numbers almost 500,000 people. It is estimated that this number is much larger and exceeds one million, taking into account Azerbaijani migrants temporarily working in Russia.

According to the Russian Interior Ministry, there are currently at least 740,000 illegal immigrants in the country. According to Putin's decree, they have until September 10 to legalize. For example, they can receive a Russian passport by signing a contract with the army and going to war with Ukraine. The rest are to leave Russia. Mass raids on immigrants living in Russia have been ongoing since the beginning of the year. At that time, Putin's decision to allow the deportation of foreigners without a court decision came into effect.

In April, a recording from Moscow appeared online showing Kyrgyz people lying on the floor with their hands clasped behind their heads and OMON officers walking over them. At the time, the Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry responded. Another action that reached the media took place in mid-June. Officers broke into a workers' hotel, threw out, beat and shocked Uzbek citizens with stun guns. And a few weeks ago, Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev stated that illegal migrants whose presence "does not benefit Russia" should leave the country.

– Such situations are absolutely contrary to friendly relations between our countries – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tashkent responded at the time. However, none of the Central Asian republics decided to respond to Moscow in the same way as the authorities in Baku.

– In 2015-2018, Russia's role in Azerbaijan was still very noticeable. In rare cases, important decisions were made without Russia's participation. Those times are over – says the Azerbaijani lawyer.