Hausner: Poland has no economic policy; real housing availability is falling

The lack of a long-term economic strategy and growing public debt are serious threats that may weaken Poland's competitiveness - warns Prof. Jerzy Hausner, former deputy prime minister and valued economist, in an interview for FXMAG. The economist also assesses that adopting the euro in Poland is unrealistic in the next decade, and a further decline in interest rates may occur in the perspective of 2025-2026.

Poland currently does not pursue any coherent economic policy - assessed Prof. Jerzy Hausner - former deputy prime minister and renowned economist in an interview for FXMAG. Although some may consider this a manifestation of free-market liberalism, the economist considers it a serious mistake. Without a directional strategy - based on a diagnosis of needs and long-term goals - the economy has no chance of sustainable development and increased competitiveness on the international stage.

In the last few years, we have seen a “sharp increase in public debt and budget deficit.” Although the situation is not yet critical, Hausner warns against continuing the current spending policy. In his opinion, social programs – such as 800+ – instead of supporting the modernization of public services, mainly serve to stimulate consumption in the short term.

Hausner estimates that further interest rate cuts are possible in the 2025–2026 perspective, potentially towards 4.75%. At the same time, he positively assesses the NBP’s actions in increasing gold reserves – especially in the context of global geopolitical and financial uncertainty.

The economist leaves no illusions: "adopting the euro in the next decade is unrealistic." Poland does not meet the convergence criteria, and also does not show the political will to integrate currencies. Although Hausner appreciates the independence of the NBP and the flexibility provided by the złoty, he believes that it is worth starting a serious debate on the costs and benefits of a potential currency change.

In Poland, there is a shortage of even "1.5 million apartments", even though some of the existing premises are empty. The reason is the decline in real availability - prices are rising faster than incomes, and some of the resources are going to the short-term rental market (Airbnb, hostels). According to Hausner, the priority should not be the speed of construction, but "increasing affordability " .

Hausner also emphasizes that "the scale of public investment alone is not enough. " Rationality is needed in their planning and financing. Armaments, for example, can drive domestic industry and exports, but only if we invest in our own production capacities and not only buy foreign equipment. Similarly, in the health service - investments in modern equipment alone will not shorten the queues if the organizational system remains inefficient.

The rise in labor and energy costs is not accompanied by an increase in productivity. Hausner warns that “Poland is losing its competitiveness. ” In addition, the climate for entrepreneurs is worsened by the instability of the law and the growth of bureaucracy. Instead of supporting innovation, the banking sector focuses on safe capital investments – e.g. in bonds – instead of financing production investments.

Although Poland is doing well with the digitalization of public services (e.g. ePUAP, BLIK), "we lack our own technological solutions. " Hausner draws attention to the low expenditure on research and development and insufficient cooperation between science and business. Without this, Poland will not fully exploit the potential of artificial intelligence and digital transformation.

Prepared by JM

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