Alarm for the zloty. Nervous reaction to the election results

• The zloty started the post-election Monday with a significant weakening, but in the afternoon there was practically no trace of the morning shock on the currency market.
• The EUR/PLN exchange rate even reached the level of 4.29 in the morning hours, but with each subsequent hour our currency made up for the losses and finally at around 5 p.m. we pay less than 4.26 PLN for one euro.
• As for the US dollar, Monday morning brought a depreciation of the zloty to the level of 3.84, the highest since the beginning of April this year, and at around 5 p.m. one dollar was less than 3.79 PLN, i.e. the same as before the post-election weakening.

Let us recall that according to the National Electoral Commission data from all districts, Rafał Trzaskowski received 31.36 percent of the votes, and Karol Nawrocki - 29.54 percent. Sławomir Mentzen received 14.81 percent of the votes, and Grzegorz Braun - 6.34 percent.

On Friday evening, the Moody's rating agency lowered the U.S. government's highest credit rating from AAA to AA1.

The zloty started the day with a clear weakening. Then it started to make up for losses

According to analysts from Internetowy Kantor, both the decision of one of the largest rating agencies and political aspects had a significant impact on currency rates on Monday.

- The złoty already had a tendency to weaken on the market on Friday, due to election uncertainty. The ambiguous distribution of votes also did not support the złoty, which remained weak at the beginning of the new week on forex. The change came with the start of the European session, when the euro began to strengthen. This is the effect of, among other things, the expectation of a trade agreement between the European Union and Great Britain. The strength of the EU currency translates into the złoty, which, together with the euro, is strengthening on the market - experts indicate in their commentary.

The zloty was under the influence of political events on Monday morning.

The first round of the presidential election was a surprise compared to what previous polls had shown. Financial markets underestimated support for the right-wing candidates (Nawrocki, Mentzen, Braun). As a result, the political battle before the final showdown on June 1 (the second round) may be quite even, which will increase uncertainty about the final result (and investors don't like that).

Initial turmoil on the zloty and stock exchange is fear of political stability

Chief economist of Santander Bank Polska, Piotr Belski, pointed out that the difference between the two main candidates, much lower than the election polls indicated, turned out to be a surprise for the market.

In his opinion, the observed correction is the result of fears of a decrease in political stability in Poland. The market is thus signaling its fears of a possible destabilization of the Polish political price if the election were won by a candidate considered less pro-European.

The second round of the presidential elections will be held on June 1, 2025.