The drift after the auspicious beginning of João Lourenço

I would prefer to open an article about the situation in Angola, but focused on the figure of João Lourenço, as this one is, with a manifestation of recognition for something like the merit with which its president has exercised his high office. What comfort that would represent for me, considering the benign expectations with which I welcomed his election in 2017, most of which were fueled by the conviction that I was dealing with “the right man”!

The situation in which Angola and Angolans would be today, better than in 2017, would, however, be the most gratifying part of the recognition that I would like to make, but cannot do, of the fruitfulness of João Lourenço's action. A positive assessment of his mandate, such as that which would come from an improvement in the situation in the country, would always have as its premise the action of a good government, his own.

I don't know if João Lourenço is fully aware of his unpopularity, which is often highlighted by the rudeness with which he is treated. The ivory tower in which he lives (the opposite of the relaxed attitude he initially seemed to have adopted) is, in itself, enough to obscure a clear view of reality. Then there are the "worshippers" who swarm around him, and they are joined by the legion of pro-consuls who, in the service of the party-state, are spread throughout the country, each telling him only what they think he wants to hear.

His unpopularity is above all the result of deep-seated feelings of discontent and/or discouragement, caused by a host of ills for which those who suffer from them instinctively hold him responsible. His vast powers have the disadvantage of becoming a burden when they are not exercised as the people believe they should be. And they feel that they are not. In the poverty, inequalities and injustices that they suffer, João Lourenço's face is visible.

Unemployment, poverty, hunger, the dismal state of education and health, some of these problems, are not, as many people try to make us believe, the result of adverse economic and financial circumstances or past pandemic setbacks. Nor are they the result of the empty coffers that João Lourenço complains about having found. They are above all the consequence of a government that coexists with old, perhaps even worsening, vices, including incompetence, high-level state corruption and the waste of public funds. The lean times caused by the drastic reduction in oil revenues only “complicate” things.

The complaint that is heard everywhere, that life is worse now than it was in the time of José Eduardo dos Santos, is worth a verdict that should deserve João Lourenço's special attention. First of all, because of the embarrassment of comparing him unfavorably with someone he belittled and treated with manifest disdain. Secondly, because the complaint comes from feelings of dissatisfaction arising from the failure to meet the population's “basic needs.” At least for other, more difficult-to-meet needs.

The country of Angosat, the name of the satellite that makes Angola the only country in Sub-Saharan Africa to have its own; the pompous logistics that support frequent presidential trips, including a luxurious fleet of planes; the vast and expensive network of embassies and consulates spread across the world; the extravagances of the programme to commemorate the 50th anniversary of independence; the high expenditure on external lobbying and influence actions – this country, elevated to the heights of regional power, is unable to satisfy the basic needs of its population! It is a feat.

For some time now, the work of all arms of the regime, the executive, the legislative, the diplomatic and the others – the secret, in the person of its sprawling security apparatus; the propaganda supported by a constantly expanding machine – have been working to achieve a supreme objective: to divide and weaken the opposition in order to reduce it to an insignificant expression as a political and electoral competitor.

The purpose of ensuring an MPLA victory in the 2027 elections, which is what is intended, is also what animates another front, this one represented by a zealous frenzy to change electoral laws and regulations, guarantee control of electoral bodies and courts, as well as of all State institutions with the capacity to intervene in the political-electoral domain.

The electoral history of the MPLA and its regime, the real one, is not an edifying one. Over the course of sixteen years, the years of its single-party rule, were made up of mere staging or show-of-arms. After that – and it has been more than thirty years – it was made up of electoral victories obtained through manipulation and fraud calculated to prevent any change of power.

A small “negligence” in the functioning of the “electoral results manufacturing machine”, made up of the CNE and an informal structure installed within the party, led to the MPLA losing its stronghold of Luanda, as it was considered, in the 2022 elections. The shock, clear proof that the regime is not in a position to emerge victorious in free and fair elections, explains the ongoing frenzy to undermine the opposition and ensure that the electoral machine does not fail next time.

The reformist proposals that João Lourenço presented in 2017 were left behind under the pressure of the thousand and one fears that assailed him, all of which warned him of the high probability that the MPLA would lose power if they were carried out. A modern, open-minded state with independent institutions, good laws and fair policies, like the one to which his announced reformist spirit could have given rise, would never fulfil the purpose of conserving power.

The State that serves this purpose is the one that exists – partisan and/or controlled by oligarchies and other interest groups. It has nothing to prove and nothing to be accountable for; it can be dissolute and incompetent; it replaces reconciliation and tolerance with domination and tension. In the end, there will be electoral fraud to make the weapon of the vote, which in true democracies voters have at their disposal to judge those who exercise power badly, merely decorative.

Attempting to undermine UNITA and taking pains to control critical state institutions, especially the electoral machinery and the judicial bodies with jurisdiction to judge electoral disputes (and the security apparatus as well) is nothing new. It has remote antecedents. What is new is the eagerness, the haste and the scope with which the current campaign has been developed, as well as its extension to the plans of oppression and political repression.

Banning or destroying demonstrations deemed hostile and detaining their organizers; subjecting the press to a tight rein; interfering in the internal life of institutions such as the Portuguese Bar Association because its president is considered a “disaffected” member; spending loads of money on “training” the security apparatus and the militarized police, increasing their numbers, modernizing their equipment and resources – what does all this mean?

The autocratic regime headed by João Lourenço, sitting in the chair of a party frozen in time and locked in a fortress, is weak compared to that of his predecessor. He has a substantial part of the population against him – a population, it is worth remembering, that is mostly young, generally better educated, with a more refined civic and political conscience and greater power to demand. In civil society, there are more organizations that despise him than those that applaud him. In his own party, there is no shortage of wings that challenge him, as no other president has.

Nowhere in the world does a party that has been the absolute master of power for half a century fail to generate fatigue and saturation in society. This can happen even through inertia, but even more so when this longevity is accompanied by a history of many black holes. The mixture of feelings of discontent due to the clearly poor state of the country, with others of despair, caused by the drift of oppression, can result in nothing good. Even less so when feelings of saturation also enter into the equation.

I claim to be the first journalist to predict, in 2014, that João Lourenço was destined to be the next president. That was when I pointed out facts that I had come to know and analyzed. The times that followed confirmed the solidity of the projection. I would not be the first, just one more, to predict that João Lourenço will probably be poorly remembered if he does not change the course of his policies.

The weak state of Angola’s economy is not unrelated to an endemic lack of investment – ​​not the kind of investment that is fake and parasitic, but the kind of investment that can foster development, generate employment and create wealth. The only investment that can perform this “miracle”, because it has the capital, technology and know-how , is usually demanding. It avoids countries where there is corruption, where the courts are not independent and where the laws are unbalanced. Or, simply, where they can become unstable.