Kirill Shulika: Who will resolve the Ukrainian crisis?

Last week, few paid attention to the words of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who lamented that “the world order has now become a global disorder, and history, which was thought to be over, has resumed again.” All this was said with frustration because Europe cannot influence the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict in any way.

In fact, the world elites have once again realized how they were burned in the recent past when they believed in the “end of history” stated by the American philosopher Francis Fukuyama. In vain they thought that the world had become perfect and devoid of any contradictions.

In fact, the world order that existed after World War II was effective only with a system of checks and balances, that is, two poles, one of which was the NATO countries, and the other - the Warsaw Pact countries. Or, if we take the whole world, then the countries of the capitalist and socialist paths of development.

At that time, contradictions could be resolved in the UN; later, the OSCE appeared in Europe and, despite the preconditions for serious crises, at least in the Old World, they were avoided.

But all this collapsed at the end of the Cold War, in which its supposed victors took everything. That's when the so-called "end of history" was declared, although it is in fact endless. Even then, it was quite obvious that those who were declared losers would get a chance for revenge. But instead of dialogue with them, the law of the strong began to work.

The first warning bell was the conflict in the former Yugoslavia, which was resolved by NATO bombing Belgrade in the late 1990s, because it was no longer possible to resolve the crisis through international institutions. Around the same time, the process of power change began in Russia, which learned a lesson from the mistakes of others, realizing what it needed to prepare for.

Sanctions have become another instrument of influence on the disobedient. But while the bombing of Belgrade led to Slobodan Milosevic losing power, history does not know a single example of achieving goals through sanctions pressure.

And now Europe does not understand what instruments to use in resolving the Ukrainian crisis. There is no platform where this would be possible. On the contrary, existing platforms are deliberately closed to Russia, for example, by not giving visas to participants in OSCE events, or by forcing the largest power on the continent to leave the Council of Europe.

For three years the West was convinced that it was necessary to put pressure on Russia, but now even the authors of this policy themselves are acknowledging its failure. However, having no other options, the EU authorities continue to prepare sanctions packages .

The rise to power of Donald Trump in the US, who never believed in the end of history, introduced into the world discourse the idea that conflicts should be resolved through dialogue, not pressure. Moreover, the dialogue should not be inclusive, but effective, so the Americans are moving away from the principle of “not making decisions on Ukraine without Ukraine.” They do not want to observe some unwritten rules, because the written ones no longer work at all, but a result.

In the end, the world really is waiting for a dialogue between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump with much greater hope than Putin’s negotiations with Volodymyr Zelensky. At least because Russia has serious doubts about the legitimacy of the Ukrainian leader due to the expiration of his term in office.

However, the United States is clearly acting in its own interests. And if the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis contradicts them, Washington will simply leave the negotiating track, and the crisis will remain. For the Americans, two tasks are more important now: to influence Russia's relations with China and to motivate Europe to spend more money on defense. And if the mediation mission does not help solve them, the White House will begin to look for other ways to achieve these goals.

In fact, when Russia talks about eliminating the root causes of the Ukrainian conflict, it means not only the status of the territories, but also that the conflict resolution system established after the end of the Cold War should be revised. And this process cannot be launched by direct negotiations between the two parties to the conflict. Moreover, it is doubtful that it can be launched by negotiations between Putin and Trump. For example, even if the Americans agree to lift sanctions against Russia, it is far from certain that Europe will follow suit.

Therefore, a Ukrainian settlement without resolving global security issues is only possible on a temporary basis (and that, frankly speaking, is not a given). A long-term peace will most likely have to be established at an international conference that would develop new rules for resolving conflicts in Europe and the world.

Of course, this will not be a "new Yalta" because history does not repeat itself. However, only in this format can we come to an agreement, if not on the new world order that has yet to be formed, then at least on the rules that are needed for this.

But first we need to start talking to each other, and not block the work of even existing ineffective mechanisms like the OSCE through sanctions and visa restrictions. It gets ridiculous when, for example, Russian Culture Minister Olga Lyubimova was unable to fly to the Vatican for the inauguration mass of Pope Leo XIV because she was not given an air corridor. Although on Saturday US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed with cardinals the possibility of creating a platform in the Vatican for a Ukrainian settlement. However, as practice shows, the Russian delegation simply will not be able to fly there. Which will not solve a single problem in Europe.

Instead of resolving conflicts, Western elites decided to use force and lost because this path led nowhere. However, the current state of affairs provides unique opportunities for the United States to establish itself as the undisputed leader of the Western world. That is why at the moment we should not expect the White House to simply leave the Ukrainian track because it is tired of endless negotiations. Unfortunately for Europe, Washington is using the opportunity to the fullest. And here the Americans are least concerned about the future fate of Ukraine.

Russia, of course, will build relations with the USA, this is understandable, because endless confrontation can end very badly for the entire planet. However, Russia is also part of Europe, so it is in its interests to have such an order on the continent that both Washington and Beijing take it into account.