Increase in inflation expectations and decrease in indicators on the Moscow Exchange. Financial market review from May 20

Inflation expectations of the Russian population in May rose to 13.4% from 13.1% in April. China in April reduced supplies from all countries that are its main exporters by slightly more than 3%; most of all from Saudi Arabia. Average imports from Russia, the largest supplier of oil to China, in April fell by 6% compared to March.

Currency

The Chinese yuan exchange rate rose on the Moscow Exchange during Tuesday's trading session. By 19:00 Moscow time, the Chinese yuan exchange rate was 11.17 rubles, which is 9 kopecks higher than the closing level of the previous trade. The official exchange rate of the US dollar against the ruble, announced by the Bank of Russia for May 21, fell by 0.11 rubles and amounted to 80.31 rubles. The official exchange rate of the euro against the ruble, announced by the Bank of Russia for May 21, fell by 0.54 rubles and amounted to 89.97 rubles.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation calculates official rates based on data from credit institutions' reports on the results of interbank conversion transactions on the over-the-counter foreign exchange market.

Inflation expectations of the Russian population in May rose to 13.4% from 13.1% in April, according to a short INFOM survey conducted by order of the Bank of Russia. This indicator returned to the level of October-November 2024 (13.4%), it has been growing for the second month in a row. In March, inflation expectations fell to 12.9% from 13.7% in February.

At the same time, the population's assessment of inflation in May fell to 15.5% from 15.9%. This indicator also approached the level of November 2024 (15.3%). The latest survey was conducted from April 30 to May 14, 2025.

Inflation expectations of the population and business are one of the important factors that the Bank of Russia takes into account when deciding on the key rate. The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank on monetary policy will be held on June 6.

On the global currency market, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies DXY fell and by 20:30 Moscow time was around 100.2 points.

Stock

The main trading session on the Moscow Exchange ended with a fall in the main indicators. The Moscow Exchange Index fell by 2.1% and closed at 2826 points. The RTS Index fell by 1.9% and ended the trading session at 1108 points.

The administration of US President Donald Trump warned the Russian side that it could not influence congressional initiatives to introduce new sanctions against Russia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday.

“We cannot control the activities of Congress, and we have repeatedly warned about this,” he said at a Senate hearing, answering a question about draft new sanctions being considered by congressmen.

The main indicators of the US stock market showed a weak downward trend in the first half of the trading session. By 20:30 Moscow time, the Dow Jones industrial index had fallen by 0.2%, the S&P 500 index had lost about 0.3%, and the NASDAQ-100 had fallen by 0.3%.

Oil

Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday evening. The price of Brent oil futures on London's ICE Futures exchange was around $65.5 per barrel by 20:30 Moscow time. The price of WTI oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange by that time was around $63 per barrel.

China in April, amid a general decline in oil purchases from March, reduced supplies from all countries that are its main exporters by just over 3%, with imports from Saudi Arabia hit the hardest, according to calculations based on data from the General Administration of Customs.

The kingdom supplied an average of 1.35 million barrels per day last month, down 32% from March and nearly 13% from April 2024. Beijing spent nearly $3.1 billion on Saudi Arabian oil.

Average imports from Russia, China's largest oil supplier, totaled 1.96 million barrels per day in April. That's down almost 6% from March and almost 13% from the same month last year. Russia earned just over $3.9 billion from oil sales to China in April.