What Kind of World? What Kind of Türkiye? (193): Türkiye-EU Relations | Climate crisis and COP31 agenda

Senem Aydın-Düzgit and Ümit Şahin participated in the first episode of the 2025-2026 season program "What Kind of World? What Kind of Turkey?", a collaboration between the IPM-Sabancı University-Stiftung Mercator Initiative and Medyascope. The first episode focuses on Türkiye-EU relations, the climate crisis, and the COP31 agenda.

Istanbul Policy Center Director Senem Aydın-Düzgit and senior researcher Ümit Şahin assessed climate policies and Turkey-EU relations on the program "What Kind of World? What Kind of Turkey?" Experts stated that Turkey's new climate target is inadequate.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced Türkiye's new national contribution declaration at the United Nations Climate Summit in New York in September. Turkey aims to reduce emissions by 466 million tons by 2035. Emissions will fall to 643 million tons.

Şahin said the statement was misleading, saying Türkiye's current emissions are around 550 million tons. The 643 million tons targeted for 2035 is 16 percent more than the current level. Şahib said, "Türkiye is not aiming to reduce its emissions, but to increase them in a controlled manner."

The Istanbul Policy Center's newly published decarbonization roadmap proposes a different path for Türkiye to reach net zero by 2053. The report indicates that with current policies, Türkiye's carbon emission target will reach 655 million tons by 2035, and Türkiye's target is very close to this figure.

Şahin stated that even a 10 percent reduction by China would not be enough to slow climate change, but added that China could surpass this target thanks to its investments in solar energy and electric vehicles.

The European Union has not yet announced its new climate targets. Şahin assessed this as being related to Trump's pressure on defense spending and his withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. He said, "They couldn't announce them because European member states couldn't reach an agreement."

Türkiye is competing with Australia for COP31, which it wants to hold in Antalya in 2026. Şahin said Türkiye has a significant logistical advantage, saying, "Antalya has a bed capacity of 650,000. Flight connections are available from all directions."

Senem Aydın-Düzgit explained that the European Union's agenda has completely changed: "There's nothing else being discussed in Europe right now. In other words, security is the number one agenda. An entire financial resource is being allocated to security."

Threat perceptions have increased following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Düzgit said, “With the Russia-Ukraine invasion, threat perceptions within the European Union have increased significantly. There is a very serious strategic insecurity. What will be the future of the European Union? If Russia attacks the Baltic states tomorrow, who will come to their defense?”

Düzgit emphasized that Turkey remained outside these discussions: “One of our researchers was in Warsaw last week. Turkey was barely mentioned, not at all,” he said .

EU negotiations with Türkiye began in 2005. Twenty years later, the process has completely stalled. Düzgit was clear: "There is no possibility of reviving the membership process under current circumstances."

Düzgit said, "The rule of law has been shelved in Türkiye. It is unthinkable for the European Union to negotiate with such a country."

Düzgit spoke of the challenges even if democracy were restored in Türkiye: “There is a serious blockage in the EU's enlargement policy. The EU is trying to deal with daily issues, that is, urgent crises. It has already been operating in a multi-crisis environment since 2008.”

However, Düzgit emphasized that relations haven't been completely severed: "This doesn't mean that cooperation shouldn't or can't exist. It does, and it should. Because there are structural factors that keep the two sides closer together. Economy is one of them, geography is another."

Düzgit assessed relations with Germany's new coalition government: "In terms of bilateral relations, there are no problems with this coalition government. Their policies towards Türkiye are guided by the principle of not causing problems, not causing problems."

Şahin explained that Trump is trying to spread his climate policies around the world: “Trump is trying to exert incredible pressure. If countries give in to this pressure from Trump, unfortunately, there could be a reversal in climate policies regarding coal and natural gas.”

Düzgit, describing the events unfolding at the International Maritime Organization's emissions negotiations, said: "Some countries are not even speaking out. These countries, particularly Greece and Cyprus, have said they will abstain. The US is seeking a way to block the emissions decision on its side by ensuring these countries abstain."

Düzgit stated that the Istanbul Policy Center will continue its work in the areas of climate change, energy transition, and foreign policy, and that the new term will include a new chapter on digital society. Düzgit stated that the regulation of the digital sphere, its impact on employment, and geopolitical balances will be addressed.

Şahin stated that decarbonization and net-zero efforts are ongoing. Three reports have been published on the decarbonization of the steel sector. Just transition efforts are ongoing. The Paris Plus 10 series of events has begun to mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement.

The Istanbul Policy Center is expanding its areas of work in the new term. Düzgit explained the center's plans: “As IPM, we will continue to further strengthen our areas of strength. Climate change, under the leadership of our professor Ümit, is one of these areas, and our climate change program continues to grow.”

Düzgit stated that the global perspective in foreign policy and security will be strengthened: “We are carrying out many projects and studies that will further globalize our relations with Europe and contribute to the further globalization of Europe through Turkey and the IPM.”

Düzgit announced one of the most important innovations of the new era: “In this new era, we have also opened a new chapter on digital society, and we will now be working on this area. We will address issues such as digital regulation, its impact on employment, its relationship with geopolitical balances, and what Türkiye should do and where it fits into this.”

IPM will continue to convey all these issues to the public through its activities, publications and media platforms.

Şahin shared the Climate Change program's plans for the new term: "As the Climate Change program, we are continuing our work on decarbonization and net zero, which we have been doing for many years. How should Türkiye decarbonize, and what policy tools should be developed and used for this?"