The rent might not be too damn high this year

Rents have soared over the past few years, especially between 2021 and 2023 when COVID lockdowns lifted. During that time, rental demand surged, but the supply of available properties couldn't keep up. That pushed the national median asking rent from around $1,350 to $1,700, a jump of nearly 26%, according to Redfin data.

Now, after years of steep increases, will 2025 finally give renters a break?

The answer isn’t so straightforward. Experts say the rental market is shifting, but just how much it favors renters will depend on factors like the economy, interest rates and how Trump's tariffs play out.

The short answer is that it depends.

Some experts are cautiously optimistic. “Renters will likely experience more relief in 2025 than in the post-pandemic surge years of 2021 to 2023, primarily due to increased apartment construction reaching the market and a cooling economy,” said Stephen Clyde, certified residential specialist and realtor at Your Home Sold Guaranteed Realty. However, it may not be a renter’s market everywhere. He mentions that in high-demand areas with restricted inventory, like commuter suburbs or coastal towns, the supply-demand imbalance may still favor landlords.

Donovan Reynolds, a real estate agent at Redfin, agrees. “I do think 2025 is shaping up to favor renters more than the past few years,” he said. He pointed to Atlanta as an example, where, according to Reynolds, over 15,000 new rental units were added in the last year alone. He explained that this apartment boom caused supply to outpace demand, which led to a leveling off in rent prices.

However, not everyone is convinced that it’ll be a renters’ market this year.

“I do not anticipate 2025 will favor renters more than the past few years,” said Ari Harkov, a licensed associate real estate broker at Brown Harris Stevens. “If anything, higher rates and economic uncertainty are likely to push more prospective buyers to rent temporarily, creating even more competition in the rental market.”

Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic, agreed that economic uncertainty could actually increase rental demand. “If people are unsure if they will be employed in 2025, they will want to rent so they’ll have the flexibility to move if they should lose their jobs. This would then result in more rental demand, which could push up rents,” she explained.

So, the bottom line is that though some renters will likely see a friendlier market than the post-pandemic surge years, economic uncertainty and local market dynamics will play a big role in how much relief renters actually feel.

Renters in some cities are finally seeing more choices and slightly lower prices due to a wave of new apartment construction that started back in 2022 and 2023. But Clyde believes that this increase in supply could be short-lived.

“Inflation has moderated, but prices for skilled labor, insurance and materials remain well above pre-2020 levels,” he said. “And due to high labor and materials costs, many developers are delaying or canceling future projects, which could constrain supply again in late 2025 and beyond.”

Tariffs are another factor renters need to watch. Tariffs on imported materials like steel, lumber and appliances could drive up building costs, making it more expensive to complete new rental projects. Higher construction costs often get passed on to renters through higher prices. In other words, if Trump’s current tariff policies persist, rental markets could continue to experience upward pressure on prices because of increased construction costs.

And then there’s high interest rates. According to Freddie Mac data, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has ranged from 6.62% to 7.04% so far in 2025. This elevated mortgage rate is making homeownership out of reach, especially for younger households just starting out. “And as long as interest rates remain elevated, it will keep would-be homebuyers in the rental market longer, which could continue to apply pressure on rental demand,” Clyde explained.

If you’re planning to rent this year, here are some strategies to follow to get the best deal.

Start your search early. “The best rental opportunities are snapped up quickly, even in softening markets,” Clyde said. That’s why you should give yourself at least 60 days before the end of your current lease to find a new apartment. This will give you enough time to compare listings, negotiate better terms with the landlord, and avoid having to make a rushed decision. And if you’re planning an out-of-state move, you might want to start looking even earlier so you can research the neighborhoods and get a feel for the local rental market.

Don’t be afraid to negotiate. In markets where vacancy rates are rising, landlords may be more open to offering concessions. Boesel suggests asking for perks like lower monthly rent, free utilities or even a month of free rent at signing. Reynolds also recommends looking at newly built complexes (“lease-ups”) where management companies are usually eager to fill units and may be pretty flexible on pricing. That said, timing is important when it comes to negotiating. You’ll typically have better luck negotiating in the winter, which tends to be the rental market's slower months, compared to the summertime.

Lock in a longer lease if you find a deal. If you’re able to get a good deal, consider locking it in for more than 12 months if you plan on staying in the city for a few years. Especially if construction starts to slow down or new tariffs potentially drive up building costs, finding affordable rentals could become even harder in the near future. Plus, some landlords may offer a discount if you agree to a longer lease upfront.

Be flexible on location. Sometimes moving just a few zip codes over can save you hundreds of dollars each month (and thousands of dollars over the course of a few years). Plus, less-hyped or up-and-coming neighborhoods often offer apartments with more space and similar amenities, without the premium price tag of trendier areas. So if you don’t mind expanding your search radius a bit, you might be able to find much more affordable options.