🏈 Big 12 pool of draftable QBs runs deep

FRISCO, Texas -- One NFL scout estimated there are more than a dozen college quarterbacks who already have draftable grades for 2026, double what it normally is this time of year.

Another veteran scout says it's safe to project a "very good year" for quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL draft class, a stark contrast from the 2025 draft when only five players were taken in the first two days. A third scout projects there won't be any No. 1-pick no-brainers like Caleb Williams in this class, but a lot of "Jaxson Dart-type players" with production and experience.

And scouts don't flinch at this prediction: We're entering a golden age of quality quarterbacks with what's coming this year and next in college football. While the highest-end quarterbacks are still to be determined, the sheer volume of strong prospects is unusually high. And no league forecasts that possibility better than the Big 12, which has at least a half-dozen quarterbacks who already project as NFL draft picks.

NFL scouts tell ESPN it's not too early to project seven draftable prospects from the Big 12, though a fourth scout told ESPN: "I think there's a lot of intriguing guys, but I still think they all have to prove it."

Nationally, the case for the top of the draft has been made in way-too-early mock drafts. Take your pick from Penn State's Drew Allar, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, Arizona State's Sam Leavitt, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers. All could claw their way into the QB1 conversation for 2026.

The spicy wise-guy take is Ole Miss' Austin Simmons, and there's also Miami's Carson Beck, Oklahoma's John Mateer and Arkansas' Taylen Green.

And the projections for this year's bumper crop of college quarterbacks don't even include Texas' Arch Manning, who most NFL teams are viewing as a potential top prospect in the 2027 draft, when he'll join Nebraska's Dylan Raiola and Florida's DJ Lagway.

The Big 12 is led by ASU's Leavitt, who has first-round potential if he continues on his trajectory, but there are several players emerging on NFL radars: Baylor's Sawyer Robertson, Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby, Iowa State's Rocco Becht, Kansas State's Avery Johnson, TCU's Josh Hoover and Texas Tech's Behren Morton. None are surefire top-50 picks, but there's a case that one or two of them could get there to join Leavitt.

Their presence -- and retention -- has been a huge credibility boost to the Big 12.

"I think that's the most important factor ... is that those kids said, 'No, we're going to stay right where we're at because we believe in what we're doing at their respective schools.' It's a really good quarterback league this year," Kansas State coach Chris Klieman told ESPN. "I'm sure Sam had opportunities. I'm sure Rocco had opportunities. I'm sure Avery had opportunities, and I don't know all the other ones. I know there's a lot of 'em coming back."

Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham summed up the same point more succinctly: "To me, recruiting is dead. Retention is alive."

There's tantalizing talent, but not enough consistent productivity from Kansas' Jalon Daniels and Houston's Conner Weigman to insert them into that top tier. Arizona's Noah Fifita flashed in 2023 before struggling last season. The top-to-bottom Big 12 crop, which has been dinged a bit by Jake Retzlaff's planned transfer from BYU, puts it in the conversation with any league in the country for top quarterback class. Per ESPN Research, the Big 12 will have 150 FBS wins with its projected crew of QB starters. That is led by Colorado's Kaidon Salter, who went 23-6 at Liberty and will battle ESPN's No. 12 overall recruit, freshman Julian Lewis, for the starting spot.

The 150 wins among starters would put the Big 12 in contention with the ACC for the most FBS wins among starters returning, with the ACC slightly ahead at 151 if Max Johnson is UNC's starter. If it's transfer Gio Lopez under center at UNC, the ACC would drop to 144.

Regardless, the credibility of the Big 12 in the big-picture conversation of college football this year is rooted in its quarterback experience. Leavitt led ASU to the CFP and 11 wins, Becht has the most wins of any of the returning quarterbacks in the league (18-9) and Morton is next (15-9).

Johnson is 10-4 as a starter and is 17 pounds of lean muscle mass heavier this year, better equipped for the pounding that comes with his running. Hoover closed strong enough last year that he declined interest from Tennessee to stay in Fort Worth. Robertson left the Manning Academy buzzing as a possible breakout in NFL scouts' eyes this year.

And, finally, scouts have been keen on the size and potential of Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby, who is 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds and has one of the higher ceilings of this Big 12 crop. Marveled one scout: "He can flick the ball 50 yards down the field effortlessly."

Who will rise from this crop? It'll be one of the fascinating questions, and one of the reasons the Big 12 is such an intriguing conference.

The only safe Big 12 projection is that we should know quickly whatever quarterback will rise up amid the thicket of strong competition. In Week 0, Kansas State plays Iowa State in Ireland to showcase Johnson and Becht.

Sorsby and Cincinnati get their chance the opening Thursday of Week 1 against Nebraska in Kansas City. Robertson and Baylor host Auburn the opening Friday. Also on Friday, we'll get clarity on the Colorado quarterback situation when it hosts Georgia Tech.

On the opening Saturday, Utah plays at UCLA. That will showcase one of the league's most intriguing and important quarterbacks: transfer Devon Dampier, an elite athlete who rushed for 19 touchdowns in a first-team All-Mountain West season at New Mexico last year.

On the opening Monday night of the season, TCU's Josh Hoover will have an intriguing showcase at North Carolina, playing its first game under new coach Bill Belichick. Hoover quietly set TCU's single-season passing record last year with 3,949 yards. He's viewed by the NFL as more of a third- or fourth-round-type projection, but a breakout opener could jump-start that.

"We're a deep conference and quarterbacks, a lot of teams have their quarterbacks coming back," said Texas Tech's Joey McGuire. "And I think it's really important for us as a league to play well early."

NFL scouts consistently see Leavitt as the best NFL prospect in the Big 12. He's entering his third year in college after transferring from Michigan State, and he laughed off his early inclusion in some mock drafts.

He said Dillingham told him on the flight to Big 12 media days that only 20% of first-round mock draft picks from this time of year end up there.

"It instilled a little bit of a reality check," Leavitt said with a laugh.

Dillingham coached Bo Nix at Oregon and helped his renaissance after transferring from Auburn. Dillingham didn't flinch when asked if Leavitt could end up as a top-15 pick as well.

"Yes, 100%," Dillingham told ESPN. "He's competitive. He cares. He's intelligent. All the football stuff everybody sees. Everybody sees the talent. He also cares, he's intelligent, he's competitive. He has the off-the-field X factors that allow him to achieve that level."

The beauty of the college football season is that a handful of quarterbacks will barnstorm out of nowhere to the mainstream, just as Leavitt did last season. And the Big 12 appears to be the perfect incubator to launch a few more in 2025. One thing's for certain: The NFL's eyes are already squarely on the league's deep crop.