Catching up on the ACC: Power rankings, key players, must-see games

As has been the case for the better part of the past decade, the road to an ACC championship in 2025 in all likelihood will go through Clemson.

Dabo Swinney's team returns as much production as any team in the country, and the Tigers were good enough to win the ACC title and make the 12-team College Football Playoff.

But there will be plenty of competition -- and intrigue. Miami has another talented squad and is led by Georgia transfer Carson Beck. SMU was a playoff team last season and returns quarterback Kevin Jennings, Louisville has what should be a dynamic offense and Brent Key's Georgia Tech team could be ready to break out.

And though it's hard to say what will transpire at North Carolina, all eyes will be on Bill Belichick in his first year as a college coach.

We get you caught up on the ACC by breaking down the conference's CFP outlook, power rankings, must-see games, top freshmen, key transfers and numbers to know.

CFP outlook

Should be in: Clemson. There is a lot of hype around the Tigers this season, and rightfully so. They return experience, talent and future NFL picks, including quarterback Cade Klubnik, receivers Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco Jr., and imposing defensive linemen Peter Woods and T.J. Parker. Eleven Clemson players made the preseason All-ACC team, and Klubnik was voted the preseason ACC player of the year.

At ACC Kickoff, coach Dabo Swinney said this team had a similar look to the ones that had previously competed for national titles at Clemson. But he also said losing in the first round to the CFP last season served to galvanize the team in the offseason. After making six straight CFP appearances in the early days of the playoff, Clemson missed out three years in a row, leading to questions about not only Swinney but the state of the program. Making the playoff last season -- when it appeared all hope was lost after a regular-season finale loss to South Carolina -- gave this group of Tigers a taste of what it's like to compete in the CFP. Now they want to win it all.

In the running: Miami, Louisville, SMU, Georgia Tech. Clemson enters the season as the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC, but there is a group just behind the Tigers that will have every opportunity to compete for a playoff spot. Just like last season, Miami is in that mix, with Carson Beck now leading the way at quarterback. Coach Mario Cristobal says he believes the changes the Hurricanes made across the board on defense (a new coordinator plus an overhaul through the portal) fixed the issues that cost them a CFP spot a season ago. Miami should also have the best offensive line in the conference. Early-season tests against Notre Dame and Florida will provide some answers.

SMU made the playoff a year ago and returns quarterback Kevin Jennings, though the schedule degree of difficulty increases. Louisville not only has USC transfer Miller Moss at quarterback, but the best 1-2 running back combination in the league with Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Georgia Tech showed flashes a year ago. This could be the season the Jackets put it all together with Haynes King returning under center.

Long shots: Duke, North Carolina. Hear us out for a minute. Duke returns All-America caliber players to its defense, a much better offensive line and has what it believes to be a game changer at quarterback in Darian Mensah. Why not Duke? This is a program that has made big strides over the past three seasons, first under Mike Elko and last season under Manny Diaz. Both he and his defensive players are confident in taking another step with another year in his aggressive system, but the offense is where this team should make the biggest strides thanks to Mensah.

As for North Carolina, yes, there is an incredible amount we do not know about the Tar Heels. On paper, given all the questions across the board, it feels a little inconceivable to think this team can make the CFP -- particularly because UNC has historically underperformed. But this is a Bill Belichick-coached team and, well, if Indiana coach Curt Cignetti can do it in Year 1, why not Belichick? The schedule sets up beautifully, with only three trips outside the state all season. Five opponents failed to make a bowl last season. Just sayin' ... this is the long shot category, after all. -- Andrea Adelson

Must-see games

From Bill Connelly's ACC conference preview

Here are the four conference games that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points, plus a mammoth Week 1 nonconference game.

LSU at Clemson (Aug. 30). There are a couple of other huge ACC nonconference games -- Notre Dame at Miami in Week 1 and Clemson-South Carolina at the end -- but I love this game showing up in Week 1 because there aren't many teams I have more questions about than LSU and Clemson. Let's get a bunch of those questions answered right away.

Miami at Florida State (Oct. 4). At this point, Miami will have already hosted Notre Dame and Florida in nonconference play. But the Canes' ACC opener in Tallahassee will tell us a ton about both teams.

Louisville at Miami (Oct. 17). One of the bigger Friday night games of the season. Louisville hosts Clemson in November, but the Cardinals' ACC title hopes might require them to win either this one or at SMU in late November.

Miami at SMU (Nov. 1). Miami has three games on this list within a month of one another. Because Clemson's projections are so favorable, Miami might be the most important team in the title race -- if the Canes don't make it to Charlotte for the conference title game, they will have a huge role to play in which team does.

Clemson at Louisville (Nov. 14). This is Clemson's tightest projected conference game. The Tigers have to visit Louisville a year after the Cardinals smothered them 33-21 in Death Valley East. -- Bill Connelly

Three freshmen to watch

Gideon Davidson, RB, Clemson

The reigning Virginia Gatorade Player of the Year, Davidson was the No. 3 running back in the 2025 class. He immediately backed up the accolades by impressing players and coaches alike during spring practices at Clemson; coach Dabo Swinney called him "a natural" who plays beyond his age. Davidson's vision, explosiveness and ability to cut in tight windows are reminiscent of former Clemson running back Travis Etienne. The 6-foot, 200-pounder has the physical maturity and running style to make an immediate impact, which is needed as running back is one of the few inexperienced areas for a team with legitimate national title aspirations.

Demetres Samuel Jr., DB/WR, Syracuse

Samuel is a dynamic athlete and has legitimate two-way potential. Sound familiar? Though it's unwise to put Travis Hunter comparisons on any player, Samuel showed enough in spring ball for Orange coach Fran Brown to say he'll be in the mix for a spot as a starting corner this fall, and he'll also get a chance at receiver. Samuel is young -- he just turned 17 in April -- and reclassified down from the 2026 class. He initially projected as a safety and isn't afraid to come downhill to make tackles in the box. He also has the versatility and short-burst speed to close space in zone coverage and match up man-to-man on the outside. His 10.52 100-meter dash speed translates to receiver as well. Expect him to make an impact this fall, especially in a fairly inexperienced defensive backs room.

S.J. Alofaituli, OC/OG, Miami

Miami has a talented offensive line room with tons of experience along the interior, but it could be tough to keep Alofaituli off the field. He's an ultra-physical, aggressive player who makes up for a lack of elite measurables (6-foot-2, 280 pounds) with a nasty finishing streak that's very similar to current Miami All-American Francis Mauigoa. And like Mauigoa, an IMG Academy graduate, Alofaituli has tons of experience against premium competition as a four-year starter for Bishop Gorman, the Las Vegas powerhouse. He has quick feet, powerful hands and craves getting to the second level to punish linebackers. Expect Alofaituli's ability and willingness to play either center or guard to help him push for early playing time. -- Billy Tucker

Three top transfers

These selections are based on Max Olson's ranking of the top 100 transfers from the 2024-25 transfer cycle.

Carson Beck, QB, Miami

Transferring from: Georgia | Top 100 rank: 2

HT: 6-4 | WT: 220 | Class: Redshirt senior

Background: Beck was a surprise entry into the portal, reversing course and putting his name in the portal after announcing on Dec. 28 that he'd enter the NFL draft. The season-ending elbow injury Beck suffered during Georgia's SEC championship victory over Texas is one key reason he'll try to play one more college season to get back to first-round pick status. The elbow injury is also the lone reason Beck wasn't the No. 1 player in our transfer rankings. Beck was limited during spring practice, but the experience he brings as a two-year starter is hard to match. Beck went 24-3 as Georgia's starter and put up 8,157 total yards and 63 total TDs during his time in Athens. He'll bring big-game experience -- with nine wins over top-25 opponents -- a ton of arm talent and toughness. -- Max Olson

Scout's take: When Beck is healthy with a steady run game behind him, he's one of the purest, smoothest passers in college football. He's an exceptional ball handler who has the ability to not only drive the football into tight spots at intermediate and deep levels of the field but also layer it and change ball speeds. His decision-making took a step back during his final season at Georgia, and he took too many risks. -- Tom Luginbill

What he brings to Miami: Cam Ward was a total game changer for Miami's program during his lone season as QB1, turning the Hurricanes into a legitimate ACC and College Football Playoff contender on his way to becoming the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Beck is chasing all of those same goals in 2025, so this fit makes too much sense. He hasn't had a chance to play in a playoff game yet, and neither has Miami. Beck's arrival means another year of extremely high expectations for coach Mario Cristobal and his squad. -- Olson

Darian Mensah, QB, Duke

Transferring from: Tulane | Top 100 rank: 3

HT: 6-3 | WT: 200 | Class: Redshirt freshman

Background: Mensah was a completely under-the-radar two-star recruit out of San Luis Obispo, California, when the Green Wave found him and extended his first scholarship offer. He was their scout team QB in 2023 and was expected to be their third-string option last season. But the redshirt freshman earned the starting job and proved he's one of the best young QBs in the country. Mensah threw for 2,723 yards with 23 total touchdowns and six interceptions during his first season as a starter, leading Tulane to a nine-win season and a trip to the American Athletic title game in coach Jon Sumrall's debut season. His 76.5 QBR ranked third among G5 starters and 19th in the FBS, and he led all AAC starters in yards per attempt (9.5) and completion percentage (66%). Opposing coaches see elite arm talent and exciting upside. Tulane fought hard to keep Mensah, but he had several Power 4 contenders battling for his services. -- Olson

Scout's take: Mensah reminds us of former Cincinnati passer Desmond Ridder. Mensah is poised, composed and extremely accurate. He has good -- not elite -- arm strength, and his ball placement and ability to change speeds to suit the throw are impressive. He's also a good runner. -- Luginbill

What he brings to Duke: The Blue Devils went 9-3 in coach Manny Diaz's debut season with Texas transfer Maalik Murphy at quarterback. Moving on from Murphy and going all-in on Mensah makes a pretty serious statement about Diaz's ambitions to contend in the ACC in 2025. Mensah told ESPN he was drawn to Duke's academic prestige and the talent already in place to win big next season. Mensah probably could've gone just about anywhere but preferred a quick recruitment and committed on his first visit. He's trusting that Diaz and OC Jonathan Brewer can take his game to the next level. -- Olson

Duce Robinson, WR, Florida State

Transferring from: USC | Top 100 rank: 26

HT: 6-6½ | WT: 220 | Class: Sophomore

Background: Robinson was one of the most athletically gifted prospects in the class of 2023, a two-sport standout as a tight end/receiver and outfielder who ranked 40th in the ESPN 300. He signed with the Trojans to play both sports and has had two productive seasons on the football field with a combined 39 receptions for 747 yards and seven touchdowns. After finishing sixth on the team in targets in 2024, he's looking for an opportunity for a more significant role going forward. -- Olson

Scout's take: Robinson is a gigantic target out wide with 6-foot-6½ height, an 82-inch wingspan and 10-inch hands. He's a smooth mover with natural ball skills who's capable of hauling in poorly thrown passes. Robinson developed as a red zone threat in 2024, an area where he should continue to excel. He's not overly sudden and only possesses adequate top-end speed for the receiver position, as many, felt his brightest future might have been at tight end coming out of high school. -- Tucker

What he brings to Florida State: Dominic Robinson played receiver for Florida State in 2001-04, and now his son is following in his footsteps to finish out his college career. It's easy to see the fit here given how successful 6-foot-6 wideout Johnny Wilson was under Mike Norvell with the Seminoles. Robinson is the kind of difference-maker at receiver the Seminoles sorely lacked in 2024. -- Olson

Numbers to know

3: There are three new coaches in the ACC in 2025: Bill Belichick (North Carolina), Frank Reich (interim at Stanford) and Jake Dickert (Wake Forest). Last season, the ACC's three new head coaches (Fran Brown at Syracuse, Manny Diaz at Duke, Bill O'Brien at Boston College) all had at least seven wins.

6%: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, there's a 6% chance for a team from the ACC to win the national championship. There's a 52% chance two or more ACC teams qualify for the CFP and an 11% chance the conference has three or more playoff teams.

+110: Clemson is the betting favorite to win the ACC, per ESPN BET, at +110. That is the shortest preseason odds for any ACC team to win the conference championship since Clemson was a -140 favorite in 2022.

Power rankings

1. Clemson

After five years in which Clemson floated above the "good" line but clearly below "great," this season's team seems to check nearly every box. The Tigers are loaded with top-tier talent and anything less than a deep playoff run would feel like a disappointment.

2. Miami

Last season felt as if it was Miami's shot at the big time. Cam Ward was electric, and the team was talented. Ultimately, defensive shortcomings thwarted the Canes' playoff hopes. This season's squad is probably better in more places than its worse, but there's a real question about whether Carson Beck can ignite the same fire Ward did.

3. Georgia Tech

What Brent Key has done to get Georgia Tech back to relevance is impressive, and his team really mirrors his personality: hard-nosed, tough and not intimidated by anyone. Georgia Tech has six wins over ranked foes under Key, and that doesn't include an eight-OT loss to Georgia last season. Tech is ready for the big time.

4. Louisville

Miller Moss is Jeff Brohm's latest QB project, and Louisville has surrounded Moss with some exceptional skill talent, including perhaps the best running back tandem in the country. The questions are on defense, where Brohm has taken a more hands-on role in getting that unit ready for this season.

5. SMU

The Mustangs waved goodbye to some of the key contributors to last season's playoff run, including star tailback Brashard Smith, but Kevin Jennings returns at QB and Rhett Lashlee says he believes this team is good enough -- not only to make the playoff again, but to win some games.

6. Duke

After winning nine games in Manny Diaz's first season in Durham, Duke is looking to improve on that in 2025. Darian Mensah arrives as a high-priced portal addition, but players insist his mobility and accuracy make him the missing component for a potential playoff team.

7. NC State

Last season, there was ample hype around the Wolfpack and they finished 6-7. This season, no one is talking about them, so they're guaranteed at least eight wins, right? The bigger question for Dave Doeren is if this team can ever get over the hump and close in on 10 or more victories and a run at the postseason.

8. Pittsburgh

Pitt probably wasn't as good as last season's 7-0 start. Pat Narduzzi insists the Panthers certainly weren't as bad as their 0-6 finish. A bit better injury luck and another offseason with Kade Bell's up-tempo offense should equate to more consistency and, Narduzzi hopes, a better record in 2025.

9. Florida State

Everything that could have gone wrong did for Florida State last season, but the first item on the list of disasters was probably quarterback. Mike Norvell addressed that flaw by nabbing Tommy Castellanos in the transfer portal. He's a run-first QB who was benched at BC last year and is already grabbing headlines for talking smack about Alabama. It's a big risk FSU hopes will pay off.

10. Virginia Tech

On one hand, last season's injury-plagued 6-7 finish was a massive disappointment for a team that entered with high hopes. On the other hand, the Hokies didn't lose a regular-season game by more than 10 points for the first time since 2010. Getting over the close-game blues (Virginia Tech is 1-12 under Brent Pry in games decided by seven points or fewer) will be the key.

11. Virginia

Tony Elliott's rebuild at Virginia has been slow. The program has endured tragedy, dealt with limited funds, and struggled to find roster consistency. But Elliott's blueprint is finally coming into focus, and a manageable schedule certainly makes it seem as if this could be the year UVA takes a big step forward.

12. Syracuse

Syracuse won 10 games in 2024 in Fran Brown's first season as a head coach, relying primarily on the arm of Kyle McCord. He's gone this season -- replaced by Rickie Collins and Steve Angeli -- along with most of his offensive weapons. The schedule is tougher too, making the path toward a repeat performance seem like a rough one.

13. North Carolina

Bill Belichick has made ample headlines this offseason, but none for what has happened on the field. One reason: No one knows what has happened on the field. Belichick has been (unsurprisingly) tight-lipped but even he admits that with so much roster turnover, he's a long way from knowing what he has to work with.

14. Boston College

Bill O'Brien seems eager to do more with less at BC, and he showed last season the Eagles are capable of winning some games, even if they're among the lowest-funded programs in the ACC. QB transfer Dylan Lonergan, a former blue-chip recruit at Alabama, could be the key to better fortunes in 2025.

15. California

Cal lost its starting quarterback, five tailbacks, two tight ends and a handful of receivers to the transfer portal. This would seem like bad news, but as Justin Wilcox pointed out, the Bears' offense mostly stunk last season anyway.

16. Wake Forest

First-year head coach Jake Dickert predicted his team would be picked last. His response: "Good." The Deacons will be overlooked due to the massive turnover -- particularly on offense -- after Dave Clawson abruptly resigned last year. A light schedule might help in the rebuild though.

17. Stanford

Changing coaches a day before spring practice begins is never ideal, but for a team coming off four straight 3-9 finishes, it's hard to see how things can get much worse. Andrew Luck, the new GM, says he's building something, but it certainly feels as if the biggest strides are a few years off. -- David Hale