Projecting top 25 college basketball programs of next 25 years: Teams set for most long-term success

History has proven that the past can often inform the future. So as Duke and Kansas ranked in the top two of our ranking of the top 25 programs over the last 25 years, it should come as no surprise that the two powerhouses — packed with resources to win in the modern era and carrying cultural juice to consistently win on the court and in recruiting battles — also lead our rankings today predicting which programs will be among the top 25 over the next 25 years.

Ranking top 25 college basketball programs of last 25 years: Which teams have performed the best since 2000

Sports can often be cyclical, though, so while several teams in my review of the last 25 years may again feature prominently in this iteration as I gaze into my crystal ball, just compare the list and you'll notice almost instantly: there are plenty of differences. In fact, given how much the landscape of sports has changed with NIL, there are quite a few changes — and it seems clear some programs are positioned better than others to forge on and flourish in the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s.

Which programs?

I'm glad you asked.

Let's get to the rankings below. They were formulated by accounting for past success and program history, but also by their commitment thus far to pumping in resources along with the coaching acumen and leadership of those running the respective programs.

Let's dive in.

1. Kansas

No program has been kissed by the basketball gods more gently than Kansas. It has been led by a Hall of Fame coach for more than 40 years now — from Larry Brown to Roy Williams and now Bill Self — and I suspect that trend will continue for decades more.

While Self may be in the twilight of his career, KU has the history and the financial backing to pluck any coach from their post. This is a top-three program in college basketball and it will continue to recruit at a high level and win at a clip commensurate with its ranking.

2. Duke

Duke under Coach K emerged into a powerhouse —winning five titles and advancing to 13 Final Fours while winning 13 ACC crowns. It will continue to be so under Jon Scheyer, who has acquitted himself well already with a Final Four appearance and two ACC tourney crowns.

This program is among the best at recruiting top talents and Scheyer is a coach whose tactical abilities I'd gamble on as being among the best the next two-plus decades.

3. Louisville

Give me Louisville over Kentucky as the top team the next 25 years in the Bluegrass State. Pat Kelsey has something cooking with the Cardinals and this is a team whose future is among the shiniest not just in the ACC, but in all of college hoops.

Kelsey's charisma helped turn the Louisville program around from 8-24 the season before he arrived to 27-8 last season — and losing seasons are going to be a thing of the past. It's remarkable how quickly they recovered from the disastrous Kenny Payne era and equally impressive how sentiment has completely flipped from extreme pessimism to unbounding optimism. Kelsey has the goods.

4. Alabama

Alabama is a basketball school?

Alabama is a basketball school!

Let this ranking cement it into the ether. So long as Nate Oats — with a Final Four under his belt and two SEC titles to boot – continues to lead the Crimson Tide, they will continue to rank among the best in basketball. Oats has NBA-ified Alabama with a 3s-and-layups attack on offense that has been devastatingly effective and lifted the program into a juggernaut. The former high school math teacher has surrounded himself with analytics-minded staffers who have been ahead of the college curve and the results so far in Tuscaloosa have been nothing short of spectacular. This program is doing things it'd never done before and that will continue.

5. Indiana

The fall to irrelevance the last decade in Bloomington is among the more baffling given IU's history and resources. The Hoosiers will be back on the map as a top-10 program when we do this in 25 years, though. That stems from a belief in first-year coach Darian DeVries — who won at a high-level at Drake from 2018-2024 before going one and done at West Virginia last season.

With the forgettable Mike Woodson and Archie Miller eras in the past, IU is positioned well to rebound now and into the future.

6. North Carolina

It should come as no surprise that UNC in the post-Roy Williams era has not been as good. It is, however, at least moderately surprising that UNC has largely fallen down a tier. UNC made the title game in Year 1 of the Hubert Davis era but has made the second weekend of the tourney just once since — during which it has gone a meager 56-24 in ACC regular-season play.

The Tar Heels are entering a make-or-break year under Davis, and my gut tells me this ranking for them will be based largely on the success of another head coach.

7. Michigan

Michigan made the 2024 offseason coaching hire Indiana should have made — nabbing then-47-year-old Dusty May from Florida Atlantic. Indiana missed the NCAA Tournament under lame duck Mike Woodson while Michigan — led by former IU alumnus and Indiana native May — went 27-10 and challenged for the Big Ten crown.

The arrow of the Wolverines is pointing straight up for the foreseeable future. May's staff is forward-thinking and unafraid to challenge conventional norms. The results and the wealth of resources will give UM a top-10 status in the sport.

8. UConn

Despite changing conferences and despite numerous head coaches, UConn made the top 10 in my ranking of the programs from 2000-2005 because of the obvious: its five national titles. The Huskies come in at No. 8 here because they project to continue stacking chips so long as Dan Hurley — who said recently he contemplated stepping away this offseason — is leading the program.

They are the clear best team in the Big East and their investment back into the program will continue to pay dividends whether Hurley is leading the way or not.

9. Kentucky

Development, depth and deft evaluation of the transfer portal will be key to Kentucky under coach Mark Pope — a stark contrast to the one-and-done emphasis deployed under coach John Calipari.

While I don't think it will lead UK to top-five status the next 25 years, I do think it'll lead to plenty of success and perhaps a title or two. The Wildcats are as appealing as ever and they will continue to produce some of the best players in the sport.

10. Houston

Kelvin Sampson has revived Houston basketball since he took over in 2014 — leading it to a title game appearance, two Final Fours and six regular-season conference titles — and son Kellen Sampson, the head coach in waiting, is primed to carry the baton to the next level.

There's a foundation and identity that's been established in H-town that should ensure the Cougars are set for success when the elder Sampson inevitably hands the keys to the kingdom over.

If we ranked programs the last five years, Houston would easily be top-five. If we ranked programs the next five years, Houston would easily be top-five. But there's probably going to be a middle ground here Houston settles in post-Kelvin — even if Kellen is the smash success the program believes he can be leading the way.

11. Texas Tech

The successes of the Chris Beard era translated to the successes of the (brief) Mark Adams era and now the Grant McCasland era. It is not a coincidence that the Red Raiders are winning big and doing it consistently. They are a proud program flush with resources on a prominent stage in the basketball-centric Big 12.

McCasland, 48, is the fourth-youngest coach in the Big 12 and one of the very best in the country. If you're starting a program from scratch he'd make the short list of coaches you'd target.

12. Purdue

Purdue has the fourth-most wins among all Big Ten teams since Matt Painter took over in 2005. The program has leveled up even from the splendid Gene Keady era. That ascension in the conference and nationally will, I expect, continue, not only for as long as Painter is around — but even if he eventually steps aside.

The are positioned well in a major conference playing in an elite venue for some of the best and most basketball-hungry fans in college basketball. Few have as bright a future in college hoops as do the Boilermakers.

13. Florida

The Gators outside the top 10 may sound wild given we're only months removed from them winning the championship. But what seems blasphemous now — Florida is coming off a title run to capture its third championship since the 2000s — is merely a testament to how tough it will be to crack the top 10 in the next era.

I'm skeptical it can maintain its status in the top-heavy SEC, though it does seem next season and the next couple could see it contending for more rings.

14. Arizona

The headwinds working against Arizona are tough to ignore — it is no longer in the Pac-12 and is instead contending against Kansas and Houston in the Big 12 — but I'd bet on the Wildcats keeping pace among the best in college hoops.

This program has so far won the sixth-most games since 2000 and is in good hands behind rising star coach Tommy Lloyd. Things have been good in Tucson and there are even better days ahead.

15. BYU

This is a program that failed to crack the rankings of the top 25 of the last 25 years but one I'd wager will be a contender to sneak into the top 10 when we do the same exercise in 25 years. BYU has shown it is willing and capable of bidding and securing top talents on the court (among them Egor Demin and AJ Dybantsa) and on the coaching front (it landed rising star Kevin Young, who eschewed NBA opportunities to run the Cougars.)

16. Auburn

Seven of the eight winningest seasons for Auburn in program history have come under current head coach Bruce Pearl, who said recently he doesn't envision himself coaching much longer. The truth is that this program outside of Pearl's guidance has largely been irrelevant.

I don't think that will be the case moving forward but I do think it drops down the food chain the next 25 years.

The Tigers' place in the hierarchy of the sport has changed under Pearl in the short-term and their ranking here suggests I believe it largely stays put post-Pearl with a slight dip overall. It's a big question mark that looms and should be acknowledged.

17. Texas

This is a program that is an unquestioned blueblood in everything except success the last two decades. From resources to talent to facilities the Longhorns can go bar for bar with every program. The worm will eventually turn in Austin to take them back near the top of the sport. Sean Miller's hiring is a great first step to getting there.

18. UCLA

No program has more national championships than UCLA (11). But its last came three decades ago — and the landscape has changed a lot since then. Since 2000, it is 23rd in total wins in the sport and has four Final Fours and a national runner-up finish on its resume. There's plenty of reason for optimism here but I'm tempering expectations a tad.

19. Maryland

Buzz Williams is about to win big in Terpville, perhaps in ways that the fanbase expected Kevin Willard to do. (Whether Buzz sticks longer than a few seasons is another question.) Maryland is resource-rich and can offer plenty. This is one of only 12 programs to have won a title in the 2000s.

20. Illinois

Positioned in the Big Ten and located in the heart of a region flush with talent, Illinois — which made one title game in its program history, in 2005 — is due for some positive regression in postseason play and destined to crash somewhere inside the top 25 in 25 years. It has just four losing seasons since 1998-99.

21. Gonzaga

Whether Gonzaga can maintain its standing as a national power in the new NIL era — separated from the major conference structure and battling bluebloods for top talents — remains to be seen.

Plus, 62-year-old Mark Few is getting long in the tooth. It will continue to dominate its conference competition for the foreseeable future even as it moves to the Pac-12, I predict, but the big question is whether it can continue to stack talent as it has and if it can break through in the postseason.

22. Michigan State

Seventy-year-old Tom Izzo is probably not going to coach until he's 90 — or maybe he will! — in which case this ranking might be way too low. My hunch is that Izzo calls it quits within the next five years and the program struggles to calibrate in his absence.

It will be hard to replace a Hall of Fame coach, but MSU will find a way to remain relevant nationally — even if it may struggle, understandably, to make up for the absence of a legend.

23. Ohio State

Ohio State is believed to be the richest athletic department in college athletics with a valuation that exceeds one billion. (Yes, with a b.) That matters now as schools move toward a revenue-sharing model and will matter more in the future as it becomes a more prominent feature of athlete recruitment. It'll be hard to outbid the Buckeyes for talent on the court and on the sideline.

24. Wisconsin

Tenth in wins since 2000, Wisconsin is a sneaky great — not good, great — college basketball program. The Badgers are both overlooked and underrated in the national landscape, and their ranking at No. 24 here is arguably a perfect example of that.

They've made 22 NCAA Tournament appearances since 2000-01 and have one losing season in that stretch. It will be harder than ever to maintain consistency in this new era, yet at Wisconsin it feels like a virtual lock to bet on more of the same consistency in the years ahead.

25. Memphis

John Calipari's Tigers this program is not. Not close, actually. But Memphis cracks the list here as the only team in the American Athletic Conference — despite being in the AAC, certainly not because of it — because of its major-conference ambitions and resources. They pale in comparison to most of its conference mates.

It's hard to imagine the next 25 years will be as kind to Memphis as the previous 25 years — it was seventh in total wins in that span — but it is easy to see it developing into a powerhouse in its own conference with the ability to break through similar to Gonzaga.