Bad for Merz, but not for Germany: Why the self-proclaimed center had to lose control

Sometimes you can lock the doors so tightly and draw the curtains so tightly that the outside world no longer penetrates. While outside, disintegration progresses and discontent rages, inside it seems as if everything is back to normal. The parties of the self-proclaimed center had barricaded the gates of the Bundestag so tightly that they felt safe from dissolution in the country. But the accumulated resentment made its way to the ballot boxes for the chancellor election. At 10:07 a.m., the anger nevertheless found its way into the self-proclaimed center of the country. The coalition did not elect its candidate as chancellor.

For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, and for the first time after 20 federal elections, no chancellor emerged from the first round of voting. The CDU/CSU candidate had a theoretical majority of 12 votes. But in the end, he was 18 short. At least six members of the conservative and red parties did not vote for Merz. This makes it clear: the deep rifts in the country have finally reached the heart of the republic. The establishment has lost control.

Merz has always given the populists – but only half a

This shows once again: Not everyone in the parliamentary groups believes in the sacred value of stability that their party leaders constantly invoke. It was probably Merz's sworn enemies in the SPD who saw him as the next Hitler, but perhaps also embittered CDU/CSU members he hadn't considered. Be that as it may, the structure is no longer holding. The dissidents don't see a final battle for Germany's viability – or they see it as preventing Merz. Klingbeil and Merz failed to recognize this discontent. They were mistaken in their assessment of unity. Their self-deception goes so far that even hours after the failed vote, there is no clarity about which ballots will be legally possible next and when – not to mention their political feasibility. There was no Plan B.

During the election campaign, Merz repeatedly played the populist—but only half-heartedly. He charged ahead with "basta" statements and quick-fire actions. But unlike the successful populists of this world, he later backed down: on votes that risked AfD votes, on questions about NGOs, on the debt brake. Tomorrow, he should have fulfilled his central campaign promise of rejections. But for weeks, he and his people have been watering down it.

Trump and Orban are pulling their weight. Merz is playing populism, which he can't sustain. This half-hearted strategy has come to a temporary end today. But an even more fundamental denial of reality is over. Namely, that everything will continue as before—from now on, with trillions in debt and wartime capability. But ultimately, as always.

Merz will likely be elected chancellor in the second or third round of voting. Everyone is now terrified that everything could really change. But the facade has a crack that can no longer be repaired. But that doesn't have to be a bad thing. Because without pain, there will be no renewal—and without reality in the Bundestag, there will be no good politics.

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