Mozambique | Developing into a fossil fortress

According to local estimates , more than 5,000 people have been killed and over a million displaced in Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique since 2017. Islamist groups are trying to gain control of the region, which is home to rich oil reserves. The French multinational Total Energies has a keen interest in exploiting the reserves. However, the demands of CEO Patrick Pouyanne are immense: in order to protect the planned natural gas production on the Afungi Peninsula in Cabo Delgado Province from attacks by armed Islamists, the area should only be accessible by sea and air. Access by land should no longer be possible. A wall without gates and a military presence are intended to ensure this.

In Cabo Delgado, it will not be the Mozambican army, which is considered extremely corrupt and inefficient, that will secure the construction site, but rather the already stationed Rwandan army units. Supported by EU funds for equipment, they have become a significant player . Total is already collaborating with the Rwandan military in the areas of drone defense and maritime security—a special public-private partnership. And its importance will grow. Observers expect that, after a possible start of natural gas production in a few years, up to 5,000 Rwandan soldiers could remain on site permanently.

Rwandan troops have been on site since 2021

Since October 2017, northern Mozambique has been rocked by civil war-like conditions. Islamists began attacking people, churches, and government institutions. However, Total was also a target when the nearby town of Palma and its planned natural gas production facility were attacked in March 2021. Subsequently, Total cited "force majeure" and suspended all operations. While organizations such as the human rights and environmental organization Justicia Ambiental, in cooperation with European organizations, have since pushed forward investigations and lawsuits against Total in France and Great Britain, the Mozambican government has increased its military presence. Rwandan troops have been on site since 2021, accompanied by persistent rumors that France will cover the costs.

Total and the government are engaged in intensive negotiations, which are expected to be concluded in August. Pouyanne stated at the Japan Energy Summit in June that Total could begin construction this year and start gas exports in 2029. One point of contention that remains to be resolved is that Total is demanding that Mozambique cover the costs of the four-year delay.

Following his controversial election, Mozambique's President Daniel Chapo announced that he would review contracts with multinational companies and renegotiate them when they expire. Among other contracts, contracts with the aluminum company Mozal and Kenmare, a titanium sand producer, are set to expire in the coming months. Chapo wants to generate more revenue here and send a positive message to critics who claim that multinational companies leave people with nothing but peanuts.

Total retains its preferential conditions

However, Chapo ruled out renegotiating the contract with Total from the outset. Economists estimate that the government could collect two billion dollars per year starting in 2031 if the resumption begins this year. A higher sum, estimates suggest up to seven billion dollars per year, would only be available once the project costs have been repaid – in twelve years at the earliest. All of this is too late for the Frelimo government. Elections are scheduled for 2029, and in its view, revenues should already be flowing by then. For this reason, it is pushing for a quick conclusion of the contract with Total rather than a renegotiation on terms more favorable to Mozambique.

According to Mozambique expert Joe Hanlon, the negotiations to restart gas production demonstrate that neither side is interested in resolving the military conflict and its social causes, but rather accepts it as a given. Their primary concern is protecting a fossil energy investment project that promises high returns. In a statement, President Chapo said: "The region is more stable than it was four years ago, but it is not a paradise." However, the armed conflict in Cabo Delgado has been escalating again for many months. The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that in May, "the sharpest increase in violence in Cabo Delgado since June 2022" was recorded. Raids and violence are occurring in all five districts of Cabo Delgado. In some cases, the armed fighters have taken control of the only paved north-south road and have only released people in exchange for ransoms. The Mozambican news agency AIM recently reported that 60,000 people have been forced to flee within two weeks due to the attacks.

The local population has long felt neglected by the central government due to high levels of poverty and unemployment. Unsurprisingly, Cabo Delgado also saw several protests following the 2024 presidential election. The impact of the upcoming natural gas production was a topic of discussion. The government in Maputo is responding with greenwashing measures, for example, by awarding the gas project for providing 500 internships for young people. This is certainly not enough to pacify the social situation.