New Union faction: Mister 98 percent

Markus Söder is not known for shying away from public attention. But this afternoon he managed to do something that was an achievement even by his standards. On Tuesday, the new Union faction was constituted in the Bundestag. This is a ceremonial act - the newly elected MPs are meeting for the first time. Söder is not even a member of the new Union faction. But he managed to use the constitution to make three press appearances in just over two hours. It's hard to attract so much attention.

The Union has 208 representatives in the new Bundestag – eleven more than before. That is quite remarkable, after all, the parliament has been reduced by a good 100 seats. The Union faction is an unusual construct – because, unlike all other factions, it consists of representatives from two parties. And that is precisely the gateway for Söder to be able to put himself in the spotlight as CSU leader on this day. First at a press conference at which he announces that, at his suggestion, the CSU Bundestag members have re-elected Alexander Dobrindt as their chairman. Then at a press statement in which he announces that, at his suggestion, Friedrich Merz should be re-elected as chairman of the entire Union faction. And then there is an invitation to photographers and cameramen to watch the signing of the contract on the continuation of the CDU and CSU faction union by Söder and Merz.

"We are not the 16th regional association of the CDU, we are an independent political force - not only as a party, but also within the parliamentary group," says Dobrindt, the recently confirmed CSU regional group leader. Nobody in the CDU actually doubted that - also because of some painful experiences with the CSU in the past. But in the CSU they like to emphasize their own greatness again and again.

It must be said that Söder has caused the CDU comparatively few problems in this election campaign. The CDU and CSU have not been as close as they are now for many years. This is also reflected in the result that Merz achieved. 98 percent of the Union MPs followed Söder's proposal and elected Merz to head the Union faction. Those around him cheered afterwards that it was the best result that Merz had ever achieved.

If Merz has his way, he will give up the leadership of the parliamentary group in a few weeks. He wants to become chancellor. There is only speculation about who his successor at the head of the parliamentary group could be, but there is a lot of it. Thorsten Frei is considered a promising candidate; as First Parliamentary Secretary he is already part of the parliamentary group's inner leadership. He is also expected to be part of the Union's core negotiating team for the coalition negotiations. Frei is highly respected in the parliamentary group and is a good speaker. Above all, however, he is not only considered one of Merz's closest confidants, but also extremely loyal. Not everyone says the same about Jens Spahn, who also believes he can take on the parliamentary group's leadership.

The parliamentary group chairmanship is the most powerful position outside the immediate sphere of power of a chancellor. Chancellors therefore pay close attention to who the MPs put at their head. When Ralph Brinkhaus was elected to head the Union parliamentary group in September 2018 against Angela Merkel's declared will, it was a sign of Merkel's internal loss of power. One month later, she announced her resignation from the CDU chairmanship.

If Thorsten Frei becomes head of the Chancellery, which is also being considered, and no suitable ministry can be found for Secretary General Carsten Linnemann, Linnemann would also be considered for the parliamentary group chairmanship. Hendrik Hoppenstedt is also a possible candidate for head of the Chancellery. The man from Lower Saxony has been in the Bundestag since 2013. He was Minister of State in the Chancellery under Merkel, so he already knows his way around there. He was also the coordinator for federal-state relations there. Given the majority situation in the Bundesrat, a good relationship with the states will be extremely important for Merz in order to get his most important projects through the Bundesrat.

But it is not that far yet. On Monday, in the big post-election press conference at the CDU headquarters, Merz asserted that the committees had not discussed such staffing issues for a second. He said nothing on Tuesday either. But there is a hint. In the parliamentary group meeting, not only the chairman is elected, but also the first parliamentary manager - because of the complicated regulations in the contract on the parliamentary group, only the CDU part. But the result is impressive. Thorsten Frei is confirmed in office with 99.4 percent. Anyone who enjoys so much support in the parliamentary group is an almost natural candidate for the chairmanship. The fact that Frei, unlike Merz, Linnemann and Spahn, is not from North Rhine-Westphalia but also from Baden-Württemberg should not diminish his chances either. Merz is not a fan of quotas, but not all posts can be filled by people from North Rhine-Westphalia.

And the CSU MPs? They even unanimously confirmed Dobrindt and her parliamentary manager Alexander Hoffmann in their posts. But they still have to accept one pain: In the new Union faction, the Bavarians no longer represent the largest regional group; the North Rhine-Westphalians have overtaken them.