Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance after the federal election: A party fears for its existence

Berlin. Sahra Wagenknecht was anything but amused after the election defeat. On Sunday evening, the chairwoman of the coalition of the same name decided not to appear on television and sent co-party leader Amira Mohamed Ali to take the lead. On Monday morning, the 55-year-old was still audibly disgruntled about the defeat and blamed the media and polling institutes for the failure to clear the five percent hurdle. It is a fact, of course, that she was ranked sixth among the invited guests for talk show appearances last year. At the time, pollsters reported for weeks how the BSW was going from poll high to poll high.

The blame game was not enough. Wagenknecht's follower, MEP Fabio De Masi, said on X: "I fear that this election will still keep Karlsruhe busy." He thus raised the prospect of a lawsuit before the Federal Constitutional Court. According to Wagenknecht, the BSW, which received 4.972 percent of the votes cast, was only 13,400 votes short. The theory goes that this could have been achieved, among other things, if more of the 230,000 registered voters abroad had been able to vote - and if voters had not confused the BSW with the Alliance Germany (BD) party. Experts, however, doubt the chances of success of a lawsuit.

The party founder, who had tied her personal future to an election victory before the vote, did not want to hear anything about a withdrawal on Monday. She left the question of what would happen to her open. However, it is clear that the BSW is facing serious problems.

Opinion researcher Klaus-Peter Schöppner told the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND): "I see the party on a downward trend. Much now depends on how the Left performs. If it performs, it will be difficult." He added: "The BSW would have to stop focusing so heavily on one person. Wagenknecht would have to give up publicity. But she already found that difficult with the Thuringian BSW chairwoman Katja Wolf. There is no politician who is more egomaniacal than Wagenknecht. If things don't go the way she wants, she doesn't have much perseverance. Wagenknecht has that in common with her husband Oskar Lafontaine."

After a short period of success, the challenges are suddenly enormous - and cannot be easily overcome. One of these is the structure. Until recently, the BSW only had around 1,000 members because, unlike other parties, women and men cannot simply join, but only after intensive examination by the federal executive board, which wants to retain full control. This weakens the party structure and its ability to campaign.

The potential that can be released in a vibrant party was shown by the Left Party, of which Wagenknecht was a member for many years. The leading candidate, Heidi Reichinnek, became a shooting star within a few months. Party leader Jan van Aken also attracted attention with his cheeky demeanor. The "silver-haired" Dietmar Bartsch, Gregor Gysi and Bodo Ramelow went on tour. All of this would be unthinkable in the BSW under the current conditions. Only one should shine here.

The party also has financial problems. According to research by t-online, the BSW earned a good eight million euros from the successful state and European elections and large donations to the party. However, the money was used for the previous election campaigns. Only 6.5 million euros were available for the federal election. The Bundestag administration is now investigating indications that the BSW may have used parliamentary group funds for election advertising in violation of the rules.

Ultimately, the BSW's image as a protest party has suffered due to its participation in government in Brandenburg and Thuringia. But because the party is now represented in the state parliaments of Brandenburg, Saxony and Thuringia, but no longer in the Bundestag, the balance of power has been reversed. For a long time, it seemed as if the state associations were being led by the federal party. Recently, the state associations have been publicly keeping the federal party afloat.

The BSW is unlikely to be elected to the Hamburg Parliament on Sunday. The party is ranked among the "others" in the polls there, with three percent. Things have recently looked much better in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Saxony-Anhalt. So if the BSW has a future in the foreseeable future, it is probably as an eastern party.

Thuringia's BSW boss Wolf, with whom Wagenknecht had argued in the autumn, told the RND: "For us in Thuringia it is clear that the BSW is still needed. Because we have a special responsibility." And she continued: "With our special Thuringian perspective, we will support the federal party in terms of content and organization in its further development and growth." The power-conscious Sahra Wagenknecht is likely to be alarmed by such generosity.