Ukraine War | Russian offensive near Sumy: Stay or evacuate?

Russia continues to advance in Ukraine, reportedly capturing more Ukrainian territory in May than it did at the end of 2022. According to various media reports, Russian soldiers have captured several towns in eastern Ukraine in recent days, including crossing the border into the Dnipropetrovsk region. The goal of the offensive, according to the New York Times and others, could be to create a buffer zone of about ten kilometers before launching a new attack on Pokrovsk.

The situation in the Sumy region is also becoming increasingly tense . The regional capital, which had a population of just under 250,000 before the war, could find itself in the "gray zone"—an area controlled by neither Ukrainians nor Russians—if Russian troops continue to advance. This would make evacuation more difficult for the people.

According to Ukrainian media, many Sumy residents are already asking themselves: Should they stay or evacuate ? The word "encirclement" is reportedly being heard more frequently on the streets, and people are reportedly talking about the possible isolation of the region.

Covert evacuation of Sumy is said to already be underway

Officially, the government in Kyiv has remained silent on the situation in Sumy. On Thursday, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in his video address that the Russians had been pushed back "somewhat," and even spoke of successes over the weekend. However, all available data proves that Zelensky is not telling the truth.

Although there is no official order, the covert evacuation of Sumy appears to have already begun. Large retail chains, cafes, and shops are leaving the city en masse and vacating their premises. Intelligence and police officers are compiling lists for the expulsion of families, and preparations are being made for the evacuation of prisoners from Penal Camp 116. Trains have been ordered, and the process is expected to be completed within ten days. Archives and other documents are also being removed from the city, writes Yuri Butusov, editor-in-chief of the online media outlet Zensor.net.

Until recently, the Sumy region was considered peaceful, with the war essentially passing it by. Even at the beginning of the invasion in 2022, no hostilities took place here. On its way to Kyiv, the Russian army simply passed by.

Criticism of Zelensky

However, the ultimately failed invasion of the Kursk and Belgorod regions fundamentally changed the situation for Sumy and gave the Russian army carte blanche for its invasion of northeastern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian analysts. The blame lies with President Zelensky and Army Chief of Staff Oleksandr Syrsky, they allege.

According to a report in Ukrayinska Pravda, the Ukrainian army is still attempting to attack Kursk and Belgorod. However, they are unsuccessful due to a lack of personnel and equipment. "We're stepping on the rake," one commander commented ironically on the situation. Another commander told Ukrayinska Pravda that the renewed Ukrainian advances are political in nature. They are intended to feign activity and preserve the reputation of the command leadership, the commander stated.

Ukrainian defenses barely present

Meanwhile, journalists and military experts see the Ukrainian side as partly to blame for the Russian advance. According to Zensor.net editor-in-chief Butusov, Russia has significantly increased its drone fleet and has also improved its operation and coordination. However, the main reason why the Russians are making good progress, according to Butusov, is the lack of defense facilities. This is not the first time that criticism has arisen that defense facilities, which were supposed to be built by entrepreneurs close to Zelensky, do not exist.

Vladyslav Seleznev, military expert and former spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff, also sees a mixture of Russian superiority and Ukrainian failure. "If the fortifications are breached, this could either indicate poor work by the regional military administration or that the enemy's resources are so superior that they can also penetrate our defenses," Seleznev writes.

He assumes that Moscow intends to establish a buffer zone in the Sumy region. The city itself, however, should not be attacked. Member of Parliament Mariana Besuhla believes that Sumy is not the Russians' real target. "For those who haven't noticed, the new Russian offensive in the Sumy region is not an offensive against the regional center of Sumy. It is an offensive against Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Physically and ideologically," Besuhla writes on Telegram. She accuses the Ukrainian leadership of failure. To conceal this, they are abandoning Sumy, Besuhla says.

Negotiations at a dead end

Negotiations on a ceasefire and a possible end to the war remain at a deadlock : Moscow recently announced its intention to hold the third round of negotiations in the Russian capital – with the United States. On Friday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha said Kyiv remained interested in talks but called for a realistic prospect of a ceasefire.

On Sunday, Russia handed over the bodies of 1,200 more fallen soldiers to Ukraine, bringing the total to 4,812. Ukraine handed over 27 fallen soldiers to Russia. At the last talks in Istanbul, the exchange of 6,000 was agreed upon. The handover was subsequently delayed because Kyiv initially refused to accept the bodies, claiming that many of them were Russians. Only when Moscow published lists with names and dates and places of death did Kyiv relent.