After weeks without rain: Are droughts and crop failures looming?

Leipzig. The ongoing drought is having increasing consequences for forests and agriculture. In some regions, the young plants of corn sown in early April are barely able to absorb water from the soil and remain puny, explains Andreas Marx of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig. In general, newly planted crops are currently particularly at risk. "They don't have deep roots yet, and the soil always dries out first." The risk of fires in forests is increasing.

Yes. For months, there has been very little rain compared to long-term averages, according to data from the German Weather Service (DWD). If May remains largely rain-free, spring 2025 threatens to be the driest since weather records began in 1881. According to the DWD, the driest spring to date was 1893 with only 85.3 millimeters of precipitation, followed by spring 2011 with 89.5 millimeters.

According to DWD data, 47.3 millimeters of rain fell across Germany in March and April of this year, and about 13 millimeters so far in May. Without further precipitation, the total would be about 60 millimeters.

However, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the weekend, especially in the northeastern half of the country, and around midweek, especially in the south, according to the DWD. Some weather model runs also currently indicate significantly increased precipitation for the last week of May. "Therefore, it is not yet possible to estimate whether spring 2025 will truly be the driest on record," says Marx.

For many weeks now, the UFZ drought monitor has been indicating widespread drought in the topsoil up to 25 centimeters deep, especially in the north and east of Germany.

Drought in the topsoil up to 25cm over the last 30 days

Source: UFZ Drought Monitor/ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research.

One thing that's unusual is that the soils were already so dry in April, relatively early in the year, explains Marx, head of the Central German Climate Office and responsible for the UFZ Drought Monitor. Furthermore, the drought has been going on for an unusually long time. "It's not unusual for the Drought Monitor to go deep into the red for a short time—but it is."

This is critical for agriculture: "Crops thrive primarily on water from the upper soil layers." Drought in the entire soil, down to about 1.8 meters, is also increasing in many regions. As a result, groundwater levels in Lower Saxony are now so low that, regardless of further weather developments, they will only be able to recover significantly after the growing season, starting in October.

Soil drought to approximately 1.8m over the last 30 days.

Source: UFZ Drought Monitor/ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research

Not at all. While various institutions, including the German Meteorological Service (DWD), anticipate that Germany is in for an above-average warm summer, extreme heat doesn't automatically mean severe drought, as Marx emphasizes. "Normal summer rainfall would prevent drought damage; major damage only occurs with prolonged drought lasting months."

How wet or dry a season will be is generally harder to predict for Europe than the average temperatures. Currently, there are conflicting predictions about whether the summer will be wetter or drier than average.

That depends. According to Marx, just 15 to 30 millimeters of rain could quickly bring relief to crops—as forecast for the coming days, especially in the east. "That would be a huge help to agriculture there."

Generally, a one-week rainy period can easily make up for weeks of drought. Therefore, it's far too early to assume crop failures at this stage. "It's still possible that we'll have a completely normal harvest year."

Young corn plants stand in a field with dry soil in Brandenburg.

Source: Patrick Pleul/dpa

Very likely not. While persistent droughts are becoming more common in summer and spring due to climate change, heavy rain and persistent rainfall are also occurring, as Marx explains. Numerous climate simulations indicate that it is unlikely to become significantly drier in this country.

Globally, wet regions are likely to become wetter and dry regions are likely to become drier. "In Norway, for example, it will become wetter, and the Mediterranean region will become drier – in Germany, which lies in between, the total amount of water will probably change comparatively little."

That may be true for those who want to eat ice cream or swim in the lake. However, the severe drought from 2018 to 2020, which caused billions in damage, demonstrated how catastrophic the economic consequences can be, says Marx.

Forestry was severely affected because pests such as bark beetles and spruce bark beetles thrived in the vast spruce monocultures. "500,000 hectares of forest are now treeless due to this drought."

Germans must say goodbye to the German forest. It's no longer just spruce trees that are being eaten away by bark beetles. Oak trees are also suffering from the splendid oak beetle, and even the beech tree—once a beacon of hope—is being ravaged by disease.

Unfortunately, according to experts, not. The necessary change is being addressed far too slowly and half-heartedly in many areas, Marx also says. This applies, for example, to the desealing of inner cities. Concrete surfaces are being redesigned so that water can seep away more quickly – during heavy rain, this can be crucial to preventing flooding. "We need to deseal much faster and more consistently than we have been doing so far," warns Marx.

The transition from spruce monocultures to more mixed forests is also progressing slowly. This is partly due to specific obstacles such as the far too large population of deer and other game in Germany, which results in extensive browsing of young trees.

Definitely yes, as Marx emphasizes. Many people still prefer the look of individually planted perennials with plenty of bare soil between them. However, a lot of water evaporates through these open spaces, as Marx explains. In light of climate change, it makes more sense to plant beds more densely and leave the weeds between the flowers as a barrier to evaporation, especially during dry periods.

It's also sensible to plant hedges and trees for more shade, so the sun draws less water from the soil. And, as experts repeatedly emphasize, a closely trimmed lawn can handle heat far worse than one that's been allowed to grow a bit taller. A meadow also looks far better during dry periods than a lawn that's burned to a dusty brown-yellow, Marx believes.

RND/dpa