Peso shows stability, but Banxico warns of an uncertain 2025

The Mexican peso remains relatively stable against the dollar, trading around 18.55 pesos. However, this stability could be temporary, as the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) anticipates a more volatile 2025, with latent risks both internal and external.

Amid a complex global environment, the Mexican peso has managed to maintain remarkable stability in recent days, trading at an average of 18.55 pesos per dollar in exchange houses. This calm in the foreign exchange market offers some relief to the national economy, but medium-term projections suggest that the uncertainty is far from over.

The national currency has shown resilience, recovering from previous bouts of volatility. Analysts attribute this stability to a combination of factors, such as improved consumer confidence and a steady flow of remittances. However, this strength coexists with economic activity that is still perceived as weak and an uncertain global environment.

While the present remains calm, the future could be more turbulent. The Bank of Mexico ( Banxico ) has issued forecasts that call for caution. By 2025, the monetary authority anticipates that the dollar could trade in an average range of 20.24 to 20.69 pesos per unit.

This forecast, considered conservative, reflects the expectation that inflation will remain around 3.8% and that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will be modest, at just 1.2%.

"The Mexican peso is showing relative stability amidst conflicting signals, improving domestic consumption, but with still-weak economic activity and a more uncertain global environment," said Felipe García, economic analyst.

The main source of risk for the Mexican currency comes from two clear sources. The first is external and focuses on the United States. The possibility of a more aggressive renegotiation of the USMCA or the imposition of new tariffs by the US administration could directly impact Mexican exports and put significant pressure on the exchange rate.

The second front is domestic. Political decisions, such as the controversial reform of the judiciary, have already demonstrated their ability to generate nervousness in the markets and cause depreciations in the past. Investors' perception of legal certainty and the country's business climate will be a determining factor for the stability of the peso.

In conclusion, although the exchange rate is enjoying temporary stability, this is more like a tense calm than a consolidated strength. Political and economic risks on the horizon through 2025 will be the true test for the Mexican peso.