Not just Musk and Starlink. Polish satellites are changing the rules of the game on the front lines and in business.

• "The entire space and analytical market is relatively new, both for investors and users. For government clients, it's a completely undiscovered world," says WNP Rafał Modrzewski, co-founder and CEO of ICEYE.
• A few days ago, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Minister of Finance and Economy Andrzej Domański, and head of the Polish Space Agency Marta Wachowicz visited ICEYE's Warsaw office to discuss the possibilities of dual-use technology.
• "Today, we clearly see the advantages of dual-use technologies, which, in addition to military applications, also have commercial markets. This allows technological capabilities to be maintained in peacetime not only from military budgets," explains Rafał Modrzewski in an interview with WNP.
• ICEYE's plans for this year are to double its revenue. However, not everyone can purchase such a satellite, as the company has its own code of ethics that guides its selection of contractors.
• The "Industry for Defense " conference will take place on October 15th at the International Congress Center in Katowice. It will be a meeting of leaders from industry, science, and government, dedicated to building Poland's resilience and defense potential in the face of new geopolitical and technological challenges.

Nearly half a billion in revenue, 700 employees, and a portfolio of contracts from around the world. Not a bad balance sheet for a company founded 10 years ago by two students fascinated by satellite technology. However, geopolitics has greatly aided your rapid growth. Your SAR satellites have repeatedly changed the course of the war in Ukraine. Do you consider yourself one of the beneficiaries of this conflict?

"True, the company's growth is certainly due to government contracts. On the other hand, it was possible because we adapted our product at the right time to current market needs and the rapidly changing geopolitical situation."

Has the demand for satellites increased due to the conflicts that have erupted in recent years? Absolutely. However, the key in our case was the ability to quickly adapt our business to new conditions.

You started with SAR satellites, primarily intended to monitor changes in the Earth's ice sheet. Hence the company's name, ICEYE, meaning "ice eye." Now you're one of the most important defense technology companies, with the largest constellation of satellites equipped with synthetic aperture radars (SAR), enabling continuous Earth observation. Your profile has changed somewhat…

"The changing market and geopolitical situation demanded this of us. This way, we can not only fulfill our business mission and achieve the company's financial goals, but also do things that are socially important. There are many applications for data from satellite Earth observation, and our product has proven useful to, among others, scientists, emergency services, businesses, and the armed forces – which is especially important today given Europe's defense needs."

Dual-use technologies have a future

Your first client was Exxon, who wanted to use satellites to monitor the ice cover along the northern route they were supposed to use to transport oil. Then Russia annexed Crimea and was hit with such sanctions that trade through that route was halted, and you lost a powerful customer. Were you already thinking about your technology in dual-use terms? That your satellites could not only observe the ice but also military installations?

"We knew the technology we were working on could have dual applications, but that definitely came with time. If I showed you the first business plan we used to convince investors to consider our idea, the defense aspect was nowhere to be found. Ten years ago, we had no idea this market could be so large."

Please remember that the world was completely different back then. In Europe, dual-use technologies attracted no investor interest whatsoever, which seems strange from today's perspective. Today, we clearly see the advantages of dual-use technologies, which, in addition to military applications, also have commercial markets. This allows technological capabilities to be maintained in peacetime not solely through military budgets.

Whether we're talking about satellites, drones, or artificial intelligence, technologies designed exclusively for military purposes are simply prohibitively expensive. Maintaining production and development of dual-use technologies can easily be financed through commercial applications. In my opinion, this is precisely the direction in which technology development will continue.

So, what's ICEYE's order book like today? How much weight does the civilian business have, and how much does the military business have?

We divide our orders into business and government orders, because the latter are almost never exclusively military applications. Of course, government orders primarily have intelligence and defense purposes, but our technology is also useful for a range of civilian measurements—climate change monitoring, crisis response, agriculture, and even fisheries support.

That's why it's difficult to distinguish between civilian and defense orders. However, I can confidently say that today , 80-90% of our orders are government orders. The remaining 10-20% are orders from businesses.

And your latest solution, ICEYE Flood Rapid Impact, was created specifically for civilian companies and insurers, enabling the provision of real-time automated data on floods and other natural disasters?

- That's right. I'm often asked why we need this commercial business line when the best money these days comes from the military.

After all, the war has to end sometime…

"Exactly, I always say that. I don't know when the situation will change again and the business will have to adapt to the new reality. So the most important thing is to have access to various types of markets. Then we will always be able to quickly change priorities and adapt to new activities."

ICEYE is like a car factory. You buy, rent, or use only data.

So let's talk a bit about your business model. While the government can easily afford to buy a satellite, a company—whether an insurance company or an industrial company—wishing to monitor its facilities probably can't.

"I like to compare ICEYE to a car factory. You can come to us and buy a satellite, like a car. Take the keys and drive away. However, not everyone needs their own car. That's why we offer a "rental" option—you can use our satellites, like Uber. We have an app that lets you assign a satellite, or even an entire constellation. The customer indicates the location they want to monitor, and we perform the monitoring for them, sending them the information they choose."

Interestingly, we've decided to significantly expand our offerings, offering not only data collection but also data analysis. A client simply comes to us with a question, such as which buildings in their area have been flooded. ICEYE then not only takes photos but also collects and analyzes the information to answer the client's question.

Moreover, we use not only our own fleet of satellites, but also all data available at a given time, including from satellites of other operators – for example, with an optical sensor, as well as geospatial data – to obtain the best possible answer to the client's question.

Do you also conduct data analysis based on your own solutions and technologies?

Data analytics has a key role to play in this business. As a company, we specialize in answering questions related to natural disasters, floods, fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. We have a dedicated team that focuses on analyzing these types of data sets. We employ hydrologists and former firefighters, for example, who understand the mechanisms behind disasters.

This year, you partnered with the Polish company SATIM, which specializes in advanced analytical systems. Will this help you analyze battlefield data?

- The SATIM team has been working for a long time on algorithms that allow for the remote detection and classification of various typical military objects, such as aircraft and military ships.

We lacked expertise in this area of analysis, as identifying military facilities and monitoring flood plains require completely different solutions. This is where our collaboration began.

Not only has your contribution to the successes of Ukrainian troops on the front lines of the war with Russia gained notoriety, but also your support for the Polish government during last year's floods. You provided satellite images of flooded areas, which facilitated rescue operations. Has the world finally recognized the potential and importance of the space technologies you work with?

The entire space analytics market is relatively new, both for investors and users. For government clients, it's a completely unexplored world.

The question I hear most often is whether ICEYE satellites can replace Elon Musk's Starlink satellites, as he threatens to disable them in Ukraine. This demonstrates how little knowledge about this technology still exists.

Well, they can't, because our satellites are used for Earth observation, and Starlinks are used for communications. Therefore, Starlink cannot replace SAR satellites. There's a market demand for both solutions.

Not everyone can buy an ICEYE satellite. There is an internal code of ethics.

Your satellites are incredibly powerful. They can observe the Earth and see everything, regardless of weather or terrain. I'm wondering, especially in such a turbulent time, if you have an internal data sales policy and select the clients you work with based on conflict regions? A system of ethics that determines who you partner with?

"Certainly, not everyone can become our client. These are issues that are carefully analyzed internally."

Do you analyze every client from this perspective?

"It's worth noting that we're talking about a limited pool of clients. There are 195 countries in the world, of which we work with perhaps 30. So, there aren't an infinite number of government inquiries and their analyses. However, we do conduct internal analysis of each case. This is a carefully planned process that begins with a basic legal analysis, as we must take into account all applicable sanctions, both European, American, and UN."

Is that why you can't sell satellites to Russia or Iran?

"Exactly. This is the first fundamental barrier, followed by further internal analyses. As a European supplier, we are also subject to export regulations in force in the European Union."

Orders for the Portuguese Air Force, NATO, the Finnish Defense Forces, and the Royal Netherlands Air Force are just some of the recently announced contracts. How many ICEYE satellites are currently flying overhead in space, collecting data for European governments?

- Since 2018, we have successfully placed 54 satellites into orbit - for the needs of both our constellation and our customers.

How much do you earn from this and what are your financial goals for this year?

Last year, we managed to generate €103 million in revenue, and we would like to double that figure this year. At this point, I can say we're on the right track.

It's worth mentioning that we've consistently increased our financial results for the past five years. This demonstrates the prospects for new space technologies and the future potential of this market.

The space technology market is about to experience a major shift

And in this market, ICEYE has the largest constellation of radar satellites. Isn't the competition—and I'm also referring to the big players in the space industry—hot on your heels?

"We've always faced two types of competition. On the one hand, there were startups like us—small companies developing their own technologies. Here, I have to mention our two biggest competitors, the US companies Umbra Space and Capella Space."

Why did we come out on top? We simply managed to better leverage the funds raised from investors and grow faster. Of course, we don't rest on our laurels; we constantly monitor market developments. And it's great that competition exists, as it motivates us to act.

That's one type of competition. What about the other?

"These are the world's greats you mentioned. And something incredibly interesting is happening in the market here, a much broader trend that goes far beyond the radar satellite technologies ICEYE deals with."

The way large players are organized today does not allow them to respond in real time to innovations and products introduced to the market by young companies such as Anduril or Palantir.

SpaceX can be a great example here - Lockheed Martin and Boeing, which form the United Launch Alliance company, have almost infinite human and financial resources, and are having difficulty competing with SpaceX and responding to the rockets offered by Elon Musk.

The same trend is evident in Europe. Change in such large companies that have developed their own systems—for innovation, risk mitigation, and project management—is exceptionally difficult. We're talking about hundreds of people who have been working within established patterns for decades, and breaking free from them is prohibitively difficult. New, more flexible entities could lead to a complete shift in the balance of power in the industry over the next few years.