Good and bad news for energy consumers. 2025 could be a breakthrough year
- The President of the Energy Regulatory Office recommends abandoning the policy of freezing energy prices.
- In 2025, we will probably see liberalization of electricity sales market regulations.
- The good news for consumers may be that competition between electricity suppliers will increase. There is also bad news: we need to prepare for the possibility of fluctuations in energy prices for households.
- The dynamics and level of prices at the end of 2024 in groups of recipients not covered by protection may be one of the reasons for the decision to abandon the application of special protection in the form of centrally determined energy prices to selected groups of recipients - we read in the report of the President of the Energy Regulatory Office for 2024.
As explained, the period in question was characterized by "significant changes in energy prices". These included a decrease in the price in tariff group A, which may indicate a relatively "strong connection of these prices with prices on the wholesale market". On the other hand, there was an increase in energy prices in tariff group G, which was caused by an increase in the frozen energy price ceiling as part of protecting customers against excessive price increases.
Return to the use of approved tariffs. This is what the president of URE proposesIn connection with the above, the President of the Energy Regulatory Office recommended abandoning the application of centrally set prices. Instead, he proposes " a return to the good practice of applying tariffs approved by the President of the Energy Regulatory Office in relation to activities that are an area of public law obligation (sale ex officio, including reserve sale) or a natural monopoly (distribution of electricity)".
![Comparison of price levels: average sales price, electricity price and distribution fee level applied in comprehensive agreements, in 2016-2024 – on average for all recipients and for recipients in individual tariff groups [PLN/MWh] (source: Report of the President of the Energy Regulatory Office for 2024)](https://pliki.portalsamorzadowy.pl/i/26/81/78/268178.jpg)
In 2024, the President of the Energy Regulatory Office began monitoring the ratio of retail prices of electricity for households to wholesale prices. It turned out that individual trading companies have different purchasing policies. Hence - as the President of the Energy Regulatory Office explains - there is no universal wholesale price measure appropriate for the sale of energy prices to households.
Since over 90% of household customers use fixed or zone price contracts, the optimal purchasing strategy of a trading company should be based largely on forward contracts, which allow securing energy supplies for a given year well in advance
- we read in the report.
Therefore, the President of URE adopted the prices of futures contracts, including the two most popular instruments of this type (BASE-Y-24 and PEAK5-Y-24), as wholesale price indicators.
The average price of electricity sold to households was PLN 462.67/MWh - it was 30 percent lower than the average price of the BASE-Y-24 instrument and 40 percent lower than the PEAK5-Y-24 instrument.
This may suggest that further maintenance of frozen prices is no longer justified.
- emphasizes the president of URE.
As experts comment, we may see the liberalization of the energy market in 2025. On the one hand, this may mean greater competition between energy sellers . On the other hand, however, it may increase the risk of price fluctuations for households.
