Government increases forecast by R$4 billion and deficit in accounts reaches R$30.2 billion this year

The federal government increased its forecast deficit in public accounts for 2025 by almost R$4 billion. With the new calculation from the Lula administration, the deficit, which would be R$26.3 billion in the 3rd two-month period, became R$30.2 billion in the 4th two-month period.

The new figures were compiled in the Primary Revenue and Expenditure Assessment Report, released this Monday (22). Prepared by several federal secretariats and ministries, the report details the fiscal budget and economic projections.

The findings indicate the need for a total R$12.1 billion spending freeze due to the increase in mandatory spending subject to limits. According to the rules of the fiscal framework, the instrument used to set spending limits, the government can spend up to 0.25% of Gross Domestic Product, or R$30.9 billion, so the increased spending will not require new contingencies.

To be considered within the target, the federal administration excludes the payment of court-ordered debts and the reimbursement of injured retirees and pensioners from the National Institute of Social Security (INSS). If these payments were taken into account, the deficit would exceed R$73.5 billion—more than double the limit.

According to the report, the area that saw the greatest increase in spending was the provision of social benefits, which increased spending by almost R$3 billion.