Fewer People - More Doctors. Strange Ways to Provide Russians with Doctors
There are enough doctors for everyone: By 2030, the Ministry of Health promises to almost completely eliminate their deficit. What could go wrong here?
Health Minister Mikhail Murashko recently showed a presentation stating that the deficit of doctors in state medical institutions will be reduced by 95% by 2030 compared to the deficit at the beginning of 2025. That is, the problem of the shortage of doctors will be almost completely solved.
Mikhail Murashko presented a plan to reduce the shortage of doctors by 2030. Photo: 1MI
The fight against the shortage of doctors in the Russian Federation has been going on for a long time. However, the authorities' methods do not always lead to a positive result. In 2022, for example, the shortage was reduced by eliminating vacancies. Then 49.4 full-time positions were cut . If a doctor is not provided for by the staffing schedule, then there is no problem with the shortage.
In 2022, they reported eliminating the shortage of doctors by... cutting staff positions. Photo: 1MI
This time, the minister’s presentation talks about increasing the provision of the population with doctors to 43 specialists per 10 thousand residents and mid-level medical personnel to 85 per 10 thousand residents.
If the population does not decline by 2030, then we will see a real increase in the number of medical specialists!
To eliminate the shortage of doctors by 2030, the Ministry of Health needs to find 69,740 doctors. Photo: 1MI
According to the Ministry of Health, in 2024 there were 557,918 doctors in the Russian Federation - this is 37.3 specialists per 10 thousand people and 1,176,293 mid-level medical personnel - 80.5 specialists per 10 thousand people.
This means that over the remaining 4.5 years, the number of doctors should increase by 12.5%, or 69,740 people, and the number of mid-level medical personnel by 5.6%, or 65,873 people.
The population's supply of doctors in the Russian Federation is worse than in Georgia or Lithuania. Photo: 1MI
43 doctors per 10,000 residents is a good indicator by global standards, but far from a record. In 2023, according to WHO, in Belarus the provision of 10,000 residents was 47.2 doctors, in Iceland - 47.3, in Norway - 49.8, in Argentina - 51.1, in Georgia - 56.4, in Austria - 55.1, in Lithuania - 61 doctors, in Belgium - 65.3 doctors.
In this regard, Russia is certainly not Niger, where there are only 0.4 doctors per 10 thousand residents, but it is still very far from Argentina and Georgia. And the provision of mid-level medical personnel should simply return to the 2019 figures. That is, the task of the national medical project is to return the losses that occurred during the leadership of Mikhail Murashko , who has held his post since the beginning of 2020.
Under Mikhail Murashko as head of the Ministry of Health, the shortage of medical personnel in the Russian Federation has increased. Photo: Roscongress
Finding almost 70 thousand additional doctors in a few years (in reality, much more will be needed, because some retire, some simply quit) is fantastic. But the Ministry of Health still has a chance to report on the successful completion of the task - it all depends on who will count the provision of doctors.
For example, according to Rosstat, in December 2024, the average number of doctors in the Russian Federation was 42.14 specialists per 10,000 residents. That is, to achieve the target indicator, it is enough to attract very few doctors. And if the population continues to decline, then almost nothing can be done at all.
In 36 regions of the Russian Federation, the provision of doctors already exceeds planned indicators. Photo: newizv.ru
Moreover, assessing the availability of doctors in the country as a whole is an uninformative indicator. Regions differ greatly from each other.
According to the same Rosstat data, there are 36 regions in the Russian Federation where the provision of doctors already exceeds 43 specialists. In Moscow, there are 54 doctors per 10 thousand residents, and in Chukotka, there are 74.75 specialists.
An increase in the number of doctors and nursing staff in prosperous regions does not automatically lead to an improvement in the situation of doctors and patients in depressed areas of the country.
The Jewish Autonomous Region has the fewest doctors. Photo: newizv.ru
The situation is most difficult in the Jewish Autonomous Region - there are only 26.7 doctors per 10 thousand residents. To achieve the desired indicator, it is necessary to increase the number of doctors by 61%! In the Pskov Region, the provision is 26.9 doctors, in the Kurgan Region - 27.3%. And even in the Moscow Region there are only 36.3 doctors.
These regions are included in the zone of special risk according to a number of criteria. Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova reported at an extended meeting of the board of the Ministry of Health that the Pskov Region has the highest concentration of elderly doctors: 54% of them are already over 50 years old.
— And we understand that this is an additional area of personnel risk for the healthcare system.
Doctors are getting older and retiring, and young specialists can’t handle the workload. Photo: 1MI
Older people retire - this is inevitable. The Pskov Region is in dire need of rejuvenation of medical personnel. And in the Jewish Autonomous Region, in addition to the age of doctors, there is another problem - specialists there have a record high workload. Each doctor pulls 1.7 positions on average. People work to the point of exhaustion, and then even young specialists will run in different directions.
Why recruiting additional specialists is an extremely difficult and non-trivial task (spoiler: it's not just about salaries), read in the next article by NI. But in any case, judging by the actions of officials, low accessibility of healthcare is a problem for people, not for the Ministry of Health, which can turn to the optimistically minded Rosstat for a satisfactory assessment.
newizv.ru
