Inaccessible square meters: the number of apartments cheaper than 10 million rubles in Moscow has halved

According to experts from the Metrium company, today there are 3,983 lots for sale on the primary housing market within the historical boundaries of the capital, priced at up to 10 million rubles. In annual comparison, this is almost half the figures for 2024 and almost three times less than the figures for 2023.

"In recent years, the indicator has been steadily declining even during periods of significant increases in the volume of exposure. Thus, in the same period of 2024, 6,725 such apartments and flats were presented on the market of new buildings in old Moscow, and 11,700 lots in 2023," the researchers note.

According to their calculations, in the spring of 2020–2022, the total supply on the new-build market in the metropolis was much smaller, but the number of lots up to 10 million rubles still exceeded the current figures, amounting to 7,502, 5,129 and 11,812, respectively.

If in 2023 the share of budget apartments costing up to 10 million rubles on the primary market reached 23.1%, in 2024 - 13.9%, now only 8.3% of such properties remain.

Experts note that in recent years, the decline in housing affordability has been influenced not only by inflation, but also by the policies of developers. If five years ago developers relied on standard-class panel houses, now many have switched to modern monolithic comfort-class complexes.

"Of course, a square meter in them costs more. Consequently, apartments up to 10 million rubles are becoming a deficit," said the founder of the company SIS Development, Yaroslav Gutnov .

Developers emphasize that liquid compact and inexpensive options are being snapped up especially actively. The volume of offers of small-sized apartments is not being replenished due to the fact that the capital's authorities have introduced a ban on the design of popular small-sized real estate.

"The curtailment of preferential mortgage programs and prohibitive interest rates on bank loans do not allow us to hope for an increase in the affordability of housing prices. Therefore, small apartments are washed out of the market first of all, this process has been going on for a long time, and certainly not for the last 1-1.5 years. Such apartments are always in demand from a wide target audience, they are bought for investment purposes, for rent, and also by young families.

Now these buyers have been joined by those who have long wanted to buy an apartment, but have despaired of waiting for prices to stabilize. The market can only hope for government support measures. And, most likely, they can be provided to the industry.

"Everyone who is responsible for the development of the construction sector in Russia is in favor of mortgages at minimum rates. Let's think about it, we have already discussed this," President Vladimir Putin said yesterday. "The market is not standing still, demand has partially shifted to the individual housing construction segment, to the rental market," Anton Baksaraev , CEO of the architectural design company Vector Project, told NI.

According to Ruslan Syrtsov , Managing Director of Metrium, the minimum cost of housing on the primary market in Moscow has grown from 4.6 million to 4.8 million rubles in a year. However, the washout of inexpensive premises is particularly active, since many citizens consider them a good investment asset, which will only become more expensive over time.

“They are also ideal for the rental business,” the expert points out.

What else is behind this collapse in affordable housing supply and where is the market heading?

As Ekaterina Shveeva , Associate Professor of the Department of Management and State Management of the Faculty of Economics and Management of Moscow State University of Management and Technology (MSUTR Razumovsky), notes, the situation on the real estate market looks like this: there is housing, but few can buy it.

"Those who can are either people with large savings or those who qualify for preferential programs like family mortgages. But for the vast majority of Russians, buying their own home has become an exorbitantly expensive pleasure," the expert says.

According to economist Shveyeva, the real estate market is at a crossroads in 2025.

"On the one hand, the lack of affordable mortgages has been putting pressure on prices for over a year. On the other hand, they are supported by high inflation and a lack of liquid supply," the specialist comments on the situation.

According to her forecasts, demand for economy-class real estate will decrease by 30% compared to last year. Developers are gradually abandoning the construction of budget housing and giving preference to new business-class buildings.

The NI interlocutor considers three scenarios for the development of the real estate market.

Optimistic: if the Central Bank lowers the rate, then mortgages will revive and developers will become more active.

Basic: current conditions will remain, demand will stagnate, and the market will adapt through discounts and installments.

Negative: rising mortgage defaults and falling demand will increase pressure on prices and force projects to be frozen.

Market participants advise citizens in need of better housing conditions to pay attention to support programs from the state and individual municipalities.

“These include preferential mortgage programs, subsidies for the purchase of housing, discounts from developers, and special regional projects,” explained Ekaterina Shveeva.

As previously reported by NI, preferential housing improvement programs include family and IT mortgages at 6% per annum, Far Eastern and Arctic mortgages, as well as loans for the population of new regions of the Russian Federation and residents of the Belgorod region at rates of up to 2% per annum, rural mortgages at rates of up to 3% per annum, and military mortgages from 6% per annum.

But each of these programs has its own limitations. Not all citizens of the country can take advantage of the offers. At the same time, market housing loans at 25-40% per annum are not affordable for every client.

In order to expand sales in the conditions of unaffordable mortgages, many developers are actively offering installment plans to buyers. For some developers, such sales models reach up to 50% in total, which creates high risks of non-payment. However, it is difficult to hope for a quick solution to the problem.

According to the co-owner of the real estate agency "Usadba" Nadezhda Tikhomirova , in the regions, unlike the Russian capital, it is still possible to find cheap housing. However, these are mainly Khrushchev-era buildings and apartments without renovation.

"But you shouldn't expect new affordable housing. In the fall of 2024, banks introduced subsidies from developers - an additional commission for the opportunity to purchase real estate under a preferential family mortgage. Developers were not ready to pay quite large sums and began to offer to add this commission to the cost of real estate for buyers. Because of this, the number of transactions for the sale of new buildings dropped sharply.

Now the banks have cancelled subsidies. As a result, the demand for preferential mortgages has immediately increased in the real estate market and is likely to only grow. In addition, fewer new residential complexes are being built and construction itself is becoming more expensive. Therefore, one should not expect that developers will reduce prices," the expert believes.

As NI reported earlier, in Moscow, to get a mortgage approved for a typical two-room apartment, you need to have a salary of at least 530 thousand rubles per month. The overwhelming majority of our fellow citizens cannot boast of such incomes.

“Housing affordability will only begin to increase as monetary policy normalizes,” predicts economist Ekaterina Shveyeva.