Climate protest | Study: Last generation was good for climate policy

Anew report suggests that the protests of the last generation have led to more voters wanting to vote for the Left Party and the Greens – and fewer for the AfD. The researchers themselves describe this as a "modest but measurable" influence. The study was not published in a peer-reviewed journal and has not been independently reviewed.

The team led by Markus Ostarek from the Social Change Lab examined protest data and election polls from 2022 and 2023. When a Last Generation event took place within seven days of a poll, the combined support for the Left and the Greens increased by 0.33 percentage points – while the AfD lost 0.44 percentage points. The researchers calculate that in an actual election, the Last Generation protests would have led to over 160,000 additional votes for the Left and the Greens and a loss of approximately 220,000 votes for the AfD.

"One plausible explanation is that the climate protests are shifting AfD voters to the more climate-friendly CDU and SPD voters to the more climate-friendly Green and Left parties," the authors speculate. However, this method cannot prove whether the protests actually changed the polls.

The research group also examined the impact of similar protest groups in Sweden and Great Britain. In Sweden, where data were weaker, slightly stronger gains were seen for climate-friendly parties. In Great Britain, both progressive and conservative parties gained ground—but there was no pro-climate effect. "This suggests that climate protests in the United Kingdom have a more polarizing effect," the researchers write.

Several studies have previously suggested that the Fridays for Future climate strikes boosted the Green Party's vote – bothin the 2019 European elections and the 2021 federal elections . According to the authors, the impact of protests of the Last Generation type on voting intentions has not yet been investigated. Research is generally divided on the impact of this form of protest . While smearing a museum painting with mashed potatoes or sticking yourself to a street attracts a lot of attention, it also generates considerable rejection.

Some studies therefore suggest that road blockades or property damage tend to lead to lower support for climate policy measures. Other research finds the opposite: They show that people can reject activists' strategies but still support their demands.

The recent study by the Social Change Lab also suggests a positive effect of the Last Generation on climate policy measures. The authors describe the results as "encouraging for advocates of disruptive climate protests." Even small changes in voting intentions can have significant effects by indirectly influencing climate policy. This is another reason why protests by groups like the Last Generation can be a "politically expedient tactic."

But the groups themselves seem to assess their political impact differently. At the end of last year, the Last Generation decided to change its strategy – and split into the New Generation and the Resistance Collective. Its British partner group, Just Stop Oil, also declared itself "hanging up its safety vests." Whether and how the New Generation has renewed itself will likely become apparent in June. The group has announced a "wave of resistance" for the first week of June.