Libya | Power struggle in Libya

After several days of heavy fighting, an uneasy calm reigned in the Libyan capital Tripoli over the weekend. Wheeled armored vehicles and Toyota pickup trucks equipped with anti-aircraft guns belonging to the so-called Rada militia withdrew to their base at Tripoli Airport. Civilian aircraft landed at Tripoli-Mitiga Airport for the first time in a week. Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbaiba assured citizens demonstrating against the violence in the city center that militia rule would end.

But the several thousand-strong group of Salafist Abdul Rauf Kara, with whom Dbaiba has just concluded a ceasefire, is also on the payroll of several ministries under the name Stabilization Group. Like many other groups of the Tripoli militia cartel that emerged after the uprising against long-time ruler Muammar Gaddafi, Kara refuses to be dictated to by the political elite. The militias have grown rich in recent years by appointing their commanders to high positions in state-owned companies and diverting funds to their accounts.

Many dead in street fighting

Last Tuesday, Brigade 444, which is affiliated with Dbaiba, attempted a lightning-fast storm of the barracks of Kara's men. While the more than two million inhabitants of Tripoli took cover in their apartments and houses, tanks rolled through the streets. Doctors from hospitals in the particularly contested districts of Abu Slim and Suq Al-Juma estimated by telephone that at least 55 people were killed and over 130 injured in the street fighting. Neither the government nor the newly formed alliance that Kara was able to forge after the attack have released official casualty figures.

The previous evening, Prime Minister Dbaiba, in office since 2021, still appeared to be the clear victor over the militia cartel. The leader of the city's largest militia, Abdel Ghani Al-Kikli, was shot dead in a barracks after complying with a demand to negotiate the laying down of his weapons. Al-Kikli and his militia, called the Stability Support Apparatus, were also paid by the Interior Ministry. But by unilaterally filling the board position of the state-owned telecommunications giant LPTIC, the notorious militia leader had challenged the government. Dbaiba decided to end the rule of the armed groups, perhaps also to forestall a conspiracy against him.

Many Libyans demand new elections

Minutes after al-Kikli's death, Brigade 444 stormed the barracks of al-Kikli's troops in Abu Slim with wheeled armored vehicles. Several al-Kikli fighters fled from the perceived superiority of the Turkish-trained brigade. Shortly afterwards, Prime Minister Dbaiba appeared before the cameras and called on all armed groups to disband and submit to the Ministry of the Interior. Based on their surprise victory, the Dbaiba alliance concluded that they could now also defeat the second-largest militia, Rada.

However, Dbaiba's units lost this second battle on Tuesday. Formerly feuding militias forged a new alliance against Dbaiba overnight. Their motto: the ordinary people against the corrupt political elite, which Dbaiba represents: a businessman and multi-millionaire from the port city of Misrata. In Martyrs' Square, many are now calling for new elections and the resignation of the entire political elite. The shock was too great that, for the first time since the death of leader Muammar Gaddafi 14 years ago, heavy weapons were used in the narrow streets of central Tripoli. There is no winner in this power struggle.

The militias have become rich in recent years by appointing their commanders to high positions in state-owned companies.

Baiba's critics blame him for the rampant corruption in western Libya, but they too view his potential downfall with concern. There is currently no serious political alternative. Numerous representatives of political parties and the political opposition have disappeared or fled to militia prisons in recent years; the militias operate as states within a state.

Internationally, fears of a new civil war in Libya with international implications are now growing. Dbaiba is supported by Turkey, which in 2019/20 provided massive military aid to ensure that Tripoli and Misrata did not fall to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who is powerful in eastern and southern Libya and supported by Russia, who at the time sought to conquer all of Libya from the east.

Türkiye supports Prime Minister Dbaiba

Turkish army trainers have also been working for Dbaiba's allies for years. In return, the central bank of oil-rich Libya supports the Turkish government with various loans and unclear payments. According to well-informed officers, several Turkish military aircraft landed with weapons in the port city of Misrata last week; convoys from Misrata arrived in Tripoli, nearly 200 kilometers away, to support Dbaiba against the militias in the capital.

The former wartime opponent, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who rules eastern Libya, could exploit a potential power vacuum to his advantage. Ilyushin-76 military transport aircraft belonging to his "Libyan National Army" have been flying military equipment from the east of the country to Sirte in central Libya since Tuesday. An alliance between Haftar and the Rada militia in Tripoli would provide backing for the appointment of a successor to Dbaiba, planned by parliament next week.

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar has just returned from Moscow

Haftar has just returned from a week-long trip to Moscow and is considered an ally by the Russian government . Or is Haftar working with Dbaiba? Many Libyans are now completely at a loss as to what to do next. The majority want only one thing: new elections. These were last organized by the electoral authority HNEC in December 2021, but were called off after threats from militias. The head of the UN mission in Libya, UNSMIL, Hannah Tetteh, delivered an angry speech to the UN Security Council on Thursday. "Enough of these temporary solutions. They always lead to the same result: the might of the strongest ."

In Tripoli, the only reaction from Washington to the dramatic situation in Libya is currently causing head-shaking. According to the American television network NBC, US President Donald Trump has proposed the relocation of one million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Libya amid the power struggle in the civil war-torn country.