From humanitarian world power to emigration country: How Sweden is revamping its migration policy

The Scandinavian countries have a reputation for being among the most developed societies in the world. Their success model is based on the combination of market-based growth and a generous welfare state. It is likely from this starting point – which, in Norway's case, is favored by abundant natural resources – that their humanistic aspirations arose. Until recently, Sweden, for example, considered itself a "humanitarian world power."

The Swedish approach has come under considerable pressure since the 2015/16 refugee crisis . According to calculations by the Swedish Migration Agency, the country was Europe's largest per capita host country in 2015, with approximately 163,000 initial asylum applications. With a population of approximately ten million, the influx of refugees put the country, which was governed by a minority government of Social Democrats and Greens tolerated by the Left, to a severe test.

Since 2020, asylum applications have been around 10,000 per year

In an interview, Gabriele Baumann, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation's Nordic Regional Program, described the challenges of 2015 as follows: "The key issue regarding the policy change was integration. It became apparent that integration into the labor market was not working well and that this was putting a strain on the welfare state." Citizens had experienced the cuts firsthand, which had been caused by the sharp increase in asylum migration .

As Baumann further explains, criticism of migration policy was the unique selling point of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats at that time. "Racist arguments were not the main focus," she says. Rather, it was about the threat to the welfare state model posed by excessive immigration.

In an interview with the Berliner Zeitung, the conservative current Minister of Migration, Johan Forssell, presented his view of this period as follows: "Ultimately, the Social Democrats and the Greens understood: Either we change our policy or we lose our office. It's that simple." Since these fears met with widespread support among the Swedish population, the red-green government adjusted its policy, initially through temporary laws that became permanent from 2021.

For example, border controls were reintroduced and the identity of those entering the country was checked. Refugees were only granted temporary residence permits, family reunification was made more difficult, and humanitarian stays outside of asylum law were severely restricted. The number of initial asylum applications fell dramatically in 2016 – to around 29,000. Since 2020, they have hovered at around 10,000 per year. By comparison, Germany, which has about eight times as many inhabitants, has recorded more than 200,000 initial asylum applications annually since the end of the coronavirus pandemic in 2022.

Migration and internal security make up 60 percent of the coalition agreement

Despite these comparatively restrictive measures, the issues of migration and integration continued to dominate the 2022 election campaign. The Sweden Democrats received approximately 20 percent of the vote. The center-right Moderate Party, the Liberals, and the Christian Democrats formed a minority government tolerated by the Sweden Democrats, which became known as the Tidö Agreement. With this agreement, the center-right parties ended their years of non-cooperation with the Sweden Democrats and tore down the Swedish firewall.

The Sweden Democrats emerged from a far-right organization in the 1980s, but are now perceived as a more moderate right-wing populist party, especially compared to the German AfD. They are part of the European Conservatives and Reformists party family, which also includes the Italian governing party Fratelli d'Italia and the Polish PiS party.

The influence of the Sweden Democrats is particularly noticeable in the government's plans for migration, integration, and internal security. According to Migration Minister Forssell (Moderate), these topics accounted for 60 percent of their coalition agreement. Numerous measures, such as making it more difficult to obtain citizenship, imposing stricter residency requirements, or simplifying deportations, are currently undergoing the legislative process.

Apparently with success: In 2024, Johan Forssell's predecessor, Maria Malmer Stenergard, announced that for the first time in many years, more people were leaving Sweden than immigrating. However, as Forssell emphasized in the interview, the government's goal is to separate asylum migration from skilled labor migration. Asylum migration should be kept to a minimum, while at the same time, Sweden aims to become more attractive to highly qualified professionals from abroad.

On the other hand, Sweden continues to struggle with massive internal security problems. Clashes between migrant gangs in socially disadvantaged neighborhoods, involving firearms or even bomb attacks, continue to shape many citizens' sense of security.

Sweden Democrats remain stable at 20 percent

Even though the Sweden Democrats claim to be less radical than the AfD, and the principle of minority government has proven relatively viable in recent years, the question of political success remains. Sweden's neighboring country, Denmark, is known for having center-left governments with restrictive migration policies that have driven the right-wing populists there into relative insignificance.

Not so in Sweden: According to current polls, the right-wing populists are stable at around 20 percent and could even become the strongest force in next year's election. KAS director Baumann says: "Even today, voters attribute the greatest competence to them in matters of migration policy."

The political situation in Sweden is reminiscent of Germany, where the conservative-red coalition government under Friedrich Merz is attempting to stem the influx of AfD supporters with a more restrictive migration policy – ​​the outcome is uncertain. Migration Minister Johan Forssell, however, remains optimistic. He believes it's important for voters to feel that migration is under control. Because: "Sustainable trust only develops when you solve the problems people face every day."