Venus' "Hidden" Asteroids Are a Threat to Earth? Scientists Assess Collision Risk

The theoretical threat from asteroids can stir the imagination. Although – according to experts – the real risk is small, there are objects in the Solar System itself that require advanced observations. The subject of the latest astronomical research are the so-called hidden co-orbital asteroids of Venus.

Venus' "Hidden" Asteroids

A cosmic object hitting Earth is one of the most popular scenarios in sci-fi thrillers. The mysterious object usually arrives from the depths of space. As astronomers explain, the theoretical threat may be much closer, because among others, in the vicinity of the planets closest to Earth. Contrary to appearances, a large part of the objects orbiting the planets of the Solar System, including moons and asteroids, are still insufficiently known.

One of the objects that arouses the curiosity of scientists is the swarm of asteroids that share an orbit with Venus. To date, about 20 asteroids have been discovered, measuring about 140 meters. However, scientists estimate that there are a larger number of similar objects orbiting the planet. Their detection and observation are very difficult, among other things, due to the lack of sufficiently precise equipment (which may change soon).

Computer simulations of invisible threats

The study of asteroids traveling in the orbit of Venus was undertaken by a team led by Valerio Carruba from the State University of São Paulo in Brazil. The team carried out computer simulations of 20 known asteroids co-orbiting Venus. The first publication on this topic appeared in early 2025 in the journal "Icarus". As the first simulations showed, there is a scenario in which three of the studied objects could approach Earth in the future. We are talking about a distance of about 74 thousand km from the Earth's orbit.

In the next study (which is awaiting peer review), further simulations were conducted, including examining the trajectory of Venus’ hidden asteroids in the future. For the study, virtual asteroids were created. Their paths were simulated for a period of about 36,000 years into the future.

Do hidden Venus asteroids pose a threat to Earth?

The simulation results showed that objects following the orbit of Venus could theoretically change their trajectory in the future. However, this does not mean there is a real risk of collision with Earth.

As simulations have shown, the orbits of asteroids orbiting near Venus may change their shape in the future. To put it simply, the path of these objects from a circular orbit may become more elliptical and elongated. However, this process may occur over the next millennia. As the authors of the study estimate, it may take up to 12 thousand years for one of the studied asteroids to end up in an elliptical orbit near Earth. "The probability that any of them will collide with Earth in the near future is extremely low," reassures Scott Sheppard of the Carnegie Institution for Science, an astronomer not involved in the publication.

The space race continues

Astronomers hope that soon, finding asteroids will become much easier. According to National Geographic, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile is scheduled to open in the coming weeks. The facility, located high in the Andes, will be equipped with a powerful, wide-angle reflecting telescope called the Simonyi Survey Telescope. Scientists estimate that in a few months, the Chilean observatory could detect millions of new asteroids.

Researchers are also waiting for the launch of NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor space telescope mission. The device will search space with a highly sensitive infrared telescope. The mission could launch within the next few years if the project receives further funding from the U.S. government.