Jefferies raises target price for BCP shares to 0.75 euros and maintains buy recommendation

The North American bank Jefferies follows the movement of multiple investment houses and made a significant upgrade of BCP's assessment, after the presentation of results, increasing the target price from 0.55 euros to 0.75 euros per share, maintaining its buy recommendation.

The average target price assigned by analysts is 0.68 euros/share (according to data from Bloomberg).

Jefferies analysts say that after the results of the first quarter of 2025, “we updated [raised] our estimates of profit growth for BCP by 4% in 2025; by 10% in 2026 and by 7% in 2027 and increased our price target to 0.75 euros”.

The investment bank sees BCP on track to deliver a return (RoTE) above 15% in 2026 (or above 17% in the context of a normalized CET1 capital ratio) and well on track to return 25% of market capitalization to shareholders between 2025 and 2027.

BCP made a profit of 243.5 million euros in the first quarter of this year. The result represents an increase of 3.9% compared to the 234 million recorded in the same period of the previous year.

“The first quarter beat expectations in terms of results by 10%, due to fewer impairments and better trading results. What we considered particularly positive was the growth in credit of +1.6% compared to the previous quarter, with credit to companies in Portugal finally registering positive sequential growth, after having been in deleveraging mode since the global financial crisis”, reads the Jefferies note.

“We expect the drag on profitability caused by Swiss franc mortgage provisions in Poland and sovereign risk in Mozambique (EUR 120 million in total in Q1) to gradually ease by 2026 and 2027,” the analysts added.

Jefferies expects a faster recovery in net interest income in Portugal, “where we expect quarterly net interest income to remain stable in the second quarter, before slowly recovering over the second half. This is the result of improved dynamics in volumes,” the analysts say.

“We therefore expect net interest income to remain flat year-on-year this year and then grow at around 3% per year, with potential to rise if corporate lending growth exceeds our assumption of 3.6% CAGR (annual growth rate),” they added.

Jefferies also looks at the Polish bank controlled 50.1% by the BCO, Bank Millennium.

“We expect the profitability of the Polish business to gradually improve in 2026, and particularly in 2027, as the provisioning in relation to the Swiss franc mortgage portfolio comes to an end,” says the investment bank, adding that in its estimate, it foresees 350 million euros and 120 million euros in provisions in 2025 and 2026, before becoming insignificant from 2027 onwards.

In addition to Jefferies, three other investment houses – Mediobanca, CaixaBank BPI and Oddo BHF – also raised the “price target” for shares in the bank led by Miguel Maya.