The choice is between Pedro (Nuno Santos) and the wolf

Setúbal is a city governed by the CDU, but the socialist air has been gaining more and more ground from the communists and many of the district's local authorities are now governed by the PS. The choice of the district to spend one of the last days of the election campaign was therefore obvious at a time when the socialist caravan wants to show mobilization and support.

The first impression you get when you arrive at the entrance to the Livramento market, in the city centre, and then at all the other points of Pedro Nuno Santos' passage, is the professionalism of the socialist machine. Nothing is left to chance. Before the leader's arrival, André Pinotes Batista, the President of the local Federation, sets out the pieces and gives instructions to ensure there is no improvisation. From the positioning of the socialist youth group that accompanies all the actions, to the definition of the campaign messages that appear on small posters held by supporters, in the frames of the images of Pedro Nuno Santos when he makes statements to the press, to the definition of the route and the ideal point to speak to the media, everything is prepared long before the leader arrives.

At the front and back of the caravan, there are always advisors on hand to ensure that the script is not skewed. A close look reveals that all the routes of the parades were planned in advance to identify places where supporters could be positioned on balconies and other points above the visual horizon. The aim is to create the impression that the passage of the parade will provoke reactions among the residents and thus attract the attention of the television cameras and photographers.

Before starting the visit to the market, those responsible for communication complained to journalists about the bias in the samples of the many polls that are being published. They argued that a large proportion of those surveyed were graduates and aged between 30 and 50. In their view, the older electorate without an academic background is not represented in the studies that have been published. This is the reason why the socialists insist on a final result, on election day, that could once again surprise the country. This argument is repeated ad nauseam throughout the day, including by Pedro Nuno Santos himself.

Outside the comfort zone Pedro Nuno Santos feels most comfortable speaking in closed rooms or at rallies. Street conversations and passing greetings are definitely not his thing. Even so, the socialist leader sticks to the script and spends most of his campaign days in markets and on the streets. Behind him, a member of the party carries a bucket of roses for the leader to offer. This is a way to unlock conversations, which are almost always very quick, unless the interlocutors are more expansive.

At the Livramento market in Setúbal, Pedro Nuno Santos was approached by a surprise interlocutor. Joana Amaral Dias, accompanied by a small entourage from ADN, as she had done with Luís Montenegro at Ovibeja, appeared unexpectedly before the socialist leader to ask him, in front of the cameras, if he had already returned the 203 thousand euros he had received in allowances from the Assembly of the Republic. The noise of the market, accentuated at the time by the shouts of supporters and the noise of the drums accompanying the entourage, drowned out the discomfort and Pedro Nuno moved on. The episode, which was already unoriginal, was nothing more than a fait divers on the day of the campaign. On leaving, António Mendonça Mendes, head of the list for Setúbal, and his sister, MEP Ana Catarina Mendes, stopped to greet Amaral Dias, who was speaking to journalists, but quickly left, not before, with a smile that they defined as "agit prop" for the campaign.

Party committed to victory The days have been full of visits from party notables. It is a socialist tradition to show a united party during an election campaign and this time is no different.

Strong socialist figures were chosen to appear and give speeches. The line-up of speeches was tailor-made to highlight the curriculum and merits of the socialist government and Pedro Nuno Santos' contribution to the results achieved. This was how Inês de Medeiros thanked the socialist leader for the houses that the municipality of Almada has already managed to build and the many that are still under construction. Álvaro Beleza was given the speech on the National Health Service, "the greatest project of the last fifty years", which, according to the also President of Sedes, only the PS can help because it is "a safe haven".

The Spinumviva case has been more prominent in the campaign than it is these days, but it is always a topic that comes up in speeches. Not least because it serves as a basis for the argument that these elections “which we neither wanted nor desired”, Pedro Nuno Santos never tires of saying, are happening because Montenegro provoked them due to a personal problem. Since the day the political crisis became inevitable, this has been the socialist’s greatest concern: to explain to the Portuguese people that the Socialist Party is not to blame for the crisis. The history of Portuguese democracy has already shown that the Portuguese tend to punish those they consider responsible, hence the insistence on this point.

Fact check and the risk of liberalism As the campaign draws to a close, Pedro Nuno Santos, like Montenegro, are fine-tuning the message they want to leave to the Portuguese people. In the two speeches made by the leader, the script was practically the same, starting at the beginning: "there are five reasons why the AD should lose the elections and the Portuguese people should once again give victory to the PS, which they know is the only party that gives them security, in which they can trust." The five reasons have to be repeated by the leader several times throughout the long speech in which Pedro Nuno Santos does not want to leave any argument out.

In addition to the instability, the socialist leader accuses the AD of incompetence for having worsened the situation in the most problematic sectors such as the NHS, housing and education. As if fact-checking the announcements made after 11 months of government, the socialist who wants to be prime minister after the elections, reels off a long list of arguments to justify the thesis that Montenegro's executive failed across the board.

The inability to manage crises is another failure that is always highlighted, resorting to the closure of emergency services, the poor management of the INEM strike and even the blackout, which, in the words of Pedro Nuno, “was only not worse because REN resolved the problem in a short time”.

The strongest argument is saved for last: the danger of radicalism that could destroy the NHS and the pension system. The socialists know that the bulk of their electoral base is among the older electorate, mostly retired. The likely scenario that the Liberal Initiative could be part of a government solution with the Democratic Alliance, considered likely in the event of a victory by the AD, opens the door to fear mongering. “The IL brings the accelerator, as Cotrim says. Accelerate what?”, he asks, “they really can’t pass”. In the socialist discourse, if there is a government between the AD and the IL, the privatisation of pensions will be inevitable. Pedro Nuno knows that the reconciliation of the PSD with the retired is not yet a complete process and is betting everything on retaining these votes, which for the socialists can make the difference between defeat and victory.

António Costa's legacy is back If a year ago, the constant references to António Costa's governance caused discomfort to his successor as leader of the PS. Now those times seem to be completely forgotten.

The use of good governance during Costa's eight years is a constant to justify the idea that the PS is a "safe haven", as opposed to the beacon that Luís Montenegro claims to be. Augusto Santos Silva was the protagonist at the Setúbal rally praising Costa. "We are living in dangerous and uncertain times in the world. The Prime Minister should be in Europe, with other leaders, facing the challenges. I was at António Costa's side for many years and I know how he was consulted on a daily basis on the major issues."

The former President of the Assembly of the Republic and minister in several portfolios in the governments of António Costa used his status as senator to accuse Montenegro of “leading the country to mediocrity”, destroying the legacy of the now President of the European Council. To rescue the country from a situation that causes it “perplexity and sadness”, Santos Silva appealed to those present not to waste votes on the left and to concentrate their votes on the PS.

In defense of the Socialist Secretary-General, Santos Silva recalls the way Pedro Nuno Santos conducted negotiations with the left-wing parties during the geringonça era, “without deviations or ideological concessions”, reason enough to see him as a trustworthy leader to lead the party.

In an exclusive interview with Nascer do SOL, Pedro Nuno Santos makes a final appeal to voters, saying that Luís Montenegro is unstable and that only the PS brings stability

Pedro Nuno Santos. 'We have already shown that we know how to negotiate'

What is the last message you want to leave in this election campaign?

It is very important that we seize this opportunity to have a government that can guarantee stability. The previous government, which has been in office up until now, was not only unable to guarantee stability, but was actually the source of instability. There are problems in our country that have not only not been resolved, but have worsened, such as the health sector and the economy itself. Luís Montenegro inherits a growing economy and leaves behind, in the first three months of the year, an economy that is in decline. We want to not only win elections to correct the problems that have not been resolved, but to give Portugal a new direction, try to recover the economy, protect employment, increase wages, increase pensions, save the NHS and build housing.

According to the polls, in the best-case scenario, even with a victory for the PS, conditions will not be very different from those we had a year ago. How can the PS guarantee stability under these conditions? We are only going to the elections because of a problem that directly involves the current Prime Minister. With a victory for the PS, we will guarantee and work with the Parliament that emerges from the elections to find a solution for political stability in Portugal. And there is no reason why this should not happen, because all parties are also obliged to contribute to political stability.

Are you willing to accept the conditions that you imposed on the AD Government this year, such as sharing the position of President of the Assembly of the Republic or making concessions in the budget? It makes no sense, at this point, to be making assumptions about what will happen after May 18th. In the remaining days we must do everything in our power to achieve the best possible result and a good condition to govern. Then, when the Parliament is formed, we will soon see who we need to talk to, what conditions need to be guaranteed, but, for that to happen, the Socialist Party must win the elections.

Will Montenegro still have problems arising from the Spinumviva case? For now, there is still a lot that is not clear and has not been clarified, so doubts will remain. We are getting new news every week. The country cannot permanently remain in this environment of instability that falls, first and foremost, on the Prime Minister himself. I am convinced that we will only have political stability in Portugal if there is a change of government and government leader.

If the Socialist Party wins, as it hopes, will it hold these negotiations before meeting with the President of the Republic? We have to wait until May 18. We have already shown – I myself have done so in the past – that we can talk, negotiate and compromise to ensure conditions for governability. But it helps to have the best possible result.

For the stability that is promised, what will the next President of the Republic do? The President of the Republic is always an important player. This one no longer has much room for maneuver, so it will have to be left for the next one. It was important that May 18th not be a moment, a prelude to new elections. I want us to achieve a stable solution for the next four years on May 18th.

Is the useful vote for the PS? That is obvious. The truth is that there is only one alternative to the AD, which is the Socialist Party, and the dispersion of votes does not help this change. I have called for a concentration of votes in the PS, particularly in constituencies where smaller parties are unable to elect deputies, but whose votes are important, not only to elect an alternative to the AD, but also to ensure, in the PS's view, fewer Chega deputies in Parliament.