The day when the largest majority became a call for a useful vote

Election campaigns are a tough exercise for politicians and the media. They involve few hours of sleep, many thousands of kilometres travelled, and almost always at the end of days of constant street contact and rallies.

When the AD electoral caravan arrived on Tuesday morning in the Ribatejo floodplains to visit a rice plantation, the mood was clear, both in the caravan and among the media, everyone was counting down the days until the end. It is natural that by the second week the protagonists would feel a certain amount of tiredness, but this time it is different, the feeling of déjà vu and the futility of replaying a film already seen dominates the conversations.

Following Chega's agenda The day's programme was not designed for the image reporters, nor for the crowds. That was the programme for the following day. In Ribatejo, Montenegro wanted to show that he was responding to the concerns of Chega voters, many of whom were voters in the district of Santarém, where the AD's leader is an outsider, but is also the Minister of Education. After a demonstration of the technologies used for planting rice, Montenegro and the entire entourage were the guests of honour at a lunch that allowed us to "get away from roast meat and have a more varied and enjoyable menu", stressed the Prime Minister. But the best menu came in the words of Carlos Travassos, the neurosurgeon who is also a farmer and who, in that capacity, announced to those present that the region's farmers are with AD, because with this Government "we have passed the dark ages in the agricultural sector".

Such declared support, in the middle of an election campaign, is not common and the AD leader did not let it go unnoticed, promising more commitment to support the sector, with simplification of processes and reduction of bureaucracy.

The next step in the campaign programme followed the script of winking at Chega voters. In Torres Novas, the visit to the police school was reserved for the campaign delegation, away from the gaze of journalists. Unlike the farmers, the PSP did not want to be used for electoral purposes. Perhaps it was not, with images and speeches of officers alongside the candidate, but the visit served perfectly so that Montenegro could make the speech he wanted when he left in an attempt to obtain “a larger majority”.

At the end of more than an hour of visiting, the candidate presented his planned arguments. “We are committed to strengthening the police force by making the career more attractive and providing more equipment.” From then on, Montenegro spoke of increasing penalties for crimes against law enforcement officers, more community policing, the need to reduce violent crime and feelings of insecurity. André Ventura would not have made a very different speech when he left this police school.

Melo looking for space In a campaign in which there is only space for Montenegro, Nuno Melo is looking for ways to appear, which is not easy in a return whose motto is: «Let Luís work».

After being accused of jealousy and some discomfort with the wink that the leader of the AD has been giving to the Liberal Initiative, Nuno Melo tries to correct the shot, seeking a more institutional and less intrusive image. Throughout the day, the presence of the leader of the CDS was barely noticed, especially because this was also the day to give visibility to Fernando Alexandre, one of the ministers with the best image in the Government.

Behind the scenes of the caravan, another party machine is working discreetly, that of the CDS. There are several party members who follow the circuit and who are constantly vigilant to ensure that Nuno Melo does not become diluted in the entourage.

The priority is to find ways to give the leader prominence without causing discomfort in the scheduled agenda. It is not easy, but opportunities arise, at least for photo opportunities. This was the case at the end of the visit to the rice field, when Melo climbed into the agricultural trailer and performed some maneuvers in full view of the media, at a time when Montenegro was already leaving the area. At his side, another protagonist seeking visibility, Sebastião Bugalho, who took the day off to accompany the AD caravan.

Nuno Melo's moment would only come at night, at the dinner rally in Caldas da Rainha, where he is always given time to speak. What we noticed throughout the day that we followed the campaign was some tension among the centrists, on the one hand, to avoid causing damage or controversy in the last days of the campaign, but, at the same time, to prevent the party from disappearing or becoming diluted. The militants who accompany the caravan are doing their job and, above all, are trying to stand out in the regions of the country where the party still maintains some strength. This is precisely the case in Leiria, where the local machine has made every effort to help fill the Expoeste Pavilion with AD supporters.

Stability and a useful vote It was on Tuesday night that Montenegro began what would become his speech until the end of the campaign. Despite being excited, campaign leaders remain doubtful about what the Portuguese people will actually be able to say to the political parties on Sunday night. Uncertainty regarding the reliability of the polls outweighs the most optimistic expectations and those closest to the leader fear a result very similar to that of a year ago.

All things considered, the opinion is unanimous: the final message of the campaign needs to be refined. This must have been the focus of the hard core of the AD caravan throughout the day, because the truth is that in Caldas da Rainha, Luís Montenegro gave for the first time the speech that he has not stopped giving in these last days of the campaign.

To the “larger majority”, requested from the beginning, the AD leader has now added another appeal: “the useful vote is the only one that can bring stability for four years”.

In front of a pavilion full of supporters, Montenegro explained that winning is not enough, “we need a constructive majority”, as opposed to the “destructive majority” that dominated the last legislature. The PSD leader argues that only with a majority, which he never described as absolute, is it possible to guarantee the stability that the majority of Portuguese people desire. The message seems to have gotten across just as the campaign strategists had hoped. Since Tuesday night, Luís Montenegro has stopped having a “confused message”, as Nascer do SOL heard from the many journalists accompanying the caravan, and has started using the formula of a useful vote for a stable majority.

Looking at the polls, the high levels of voting intention for Chega seem to have become the main concern of the Democratic Alliance's hard core. After a week in which the Liberal Initiative and the possibility of a possible post-electoral understanding were the central theme of the campaign, the topic suddenly disappeared from the discourse. Before heading north, leaving the Expoeste Pavilion in Caldas da Rainha, Montenegro still had to react hotly to the topic that at that time dominated the media agenda. André Ventura's indisposition in the middle of a rally in Tavira dominated the political agenda, especially because at the time he was questioned, Luís Montenegro still did not know how serious the situation was.

The health problems that still affected the leader of Chega at the time of going to press did not stop AD from trying to steal as many votes as possible from André Ventura's party.

The AD leader and Prime Minister agreed to give a short interview to Nascer do SOL, to leave our readers a final message on the last day of the election campaign. Without talking about an absolute majority, Montenegro is betting everything on a useful vote that can bring stability for 4 years.

Luís Montenegro. 'Only strengthening AD guarantees stability'

At the end of the campaign, what is the final message you would like to leave voters with? The one you would like them to reflect on before voting? The main message is that the dice have been cast and there is only one solution to avoid having more elections in the coming years and that the results of Sunday do not result in a government capable of governing. At this moment, only we can offer that government. In other words, the campaign showed that there is a relative convergence of programs among everyone, with the main guidelines of the government.

What do you mean by that? We talk about immigration and, in essence, people agree with what we are doing: regulating and dignifying. We talk about strengthening security, and, at this point, all political forces already accept this. We talk about fiscal competitiveness: lower taxes on income from work, everyone agrees. Regarding companies, there are different views, but the country understands very well and for the most part, that the strategy is correct. And finally, we also talk about strengthening and safeguarding essential services: housing, education, health…

Are there more criticisms in healthcare? There are criticisms, but if we look at the solutions themselves, there is more noise than criticism in the solution. For example, the Family Health Units model C that I defend were decided by the Socialist Party government; it was Correia de Campos who created them. They were never implemented, but we are implementing them. I don't mean to say that we all agree, but from a programmatic point of view, there is a certain convergence, which I think society has understood and the Portuguese people have understood.

Is that why you focused your speech in this final stretch of the campaign on appealing for a useful vote? Yes, because only strengthening the AD guarantees stability and the Portuguese can trust us because the majority I have been talking about these days is a majority that will have humility and the ability to dialogue. The Portuguese need not be afraid to give us this trust.

There is a risk that we will reach the 18th with a result similar to the one we had a year ago. Is that what you fear? I don't think it will be similar. If we want to take advantage of this opportunity to resolve the problem of political stability, it is very clear that the only solution that can provide it is AD.

And for that, do you need an absolute majority? This will involve a concentration of votes, little dispersion and therefore a majority that is robust.

But why don't you ask for an absolute majority? I trust the decision of the Portuguese people and that is why I have insisted on the idea of ​​a larger majority than the one we had in 2024.

Would you be satisfied if you had a number of deputies greater than the sum of all the deputies on the left? I think we have to fight for the greatest number of deputies possible. I'm not really going to set a target. I'm really going to fight for every last one that we can win over.